Forecasting waved daily COVID-19 death count series with a novel combination of segmented Poisson model and ARIMA models
© 2021 Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group.
| Publié dans: | Journal of applied statistics. - 1991. - 50(2023), 11-12 vom: 01., Seite 2561-2574 |
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| Auteur principal: | |
| Autres auteurs: | |
| Format: | Article en ligne |
| Langue: | English |
| Publié: |
2023
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| Accès à la collection: | Journal of applied statistics |
| Sujets: | Journal Article Coronavirus disease incidence infectious diseases prevalence time series |
| Résumé: | © 2021 Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group. Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models have been widely used to forecast and model the development of various infectious diseases including COVID-19 outbreaks; however, such use of ARIMA models does not respect the count nature of the pandemic development data. For example, the daily COVID-19 death count series data for Canada and the United States (USA) are generally skewed with lots of low counts. In addition, there are generally waved patterns with turning points influenced by government major interventions against the spread of COVID-19 during different periods and seasons. In this study, we propose a novel combination of the segmented Poisson model and ARIMA models to handle these features and correlation structures in a two-stage process. The first stage of this process is a generalization of trend analysis of time series data. Our approach is illustrated with forecasting and modeling of daily COVID-19 death count series data for Canada and the USA |
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| Description: | Date Revised 11.09.2023 published: Electronic-eCollection Citation Status PubMed-not-MEDLINE |
| ISSN: | 0266-4763 |
| DOI: | 10.1080/02664763.2021.1976119 |