Estimating co-extinction threats in terrestrial ecosystems

© 2023 The Authors. Global Change Biology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Bibliographische Detailangaben
Veröffentlicht in:Global change biology. - 1999. - 29(2023), 18 vom: 29. Sept., Seite 5122-5138
1. Verfasser: Doherty, Seamus (VerfasserIn)
Weitere Verfasser: Saltré, Frédérik, Llewelyn, John, Strona, Giovanni, Williams, Stephen E, Bradshaw, Corey J A
Format: Online-Aufsatz
Sprache:English
Veröffentlicht: 2023
Zugriff auf das übergeordnete Werk:Global change biology
Schlagworte:Journal Article Review climate change co-extinctions conservation ecological network models terrestrial ecosystems trophic cascades
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520 |a The biosphere is changing rapidly due to human endeavour. Because ecological communities underlie networks of interacting species, changes that directly affect some species can have indirect effects on others. Accurate tools to predict these direct and indirect effects are therefore required to guide conservation strategies. However, most extinction-risk studies only consider the direct effects of global change-such as predicting which species will breach their thermal limits under different warming scenarios-with predictions of trophic cascades and co-extinction risks remaining mostly speculative. To predict the potential indirect effects of primary extinctions, data describing community interactions and network modelling can estimate how extinctions cascade through communities. While theoretical studies have demonstrated the usefulness of models in predicting how communities react to threats like climate change, few have applied such methods to real-world communities. This gap partly reflects challenges in constructing trophic network models of real-world food webs, highlighting the need to develop approaches for quantifying co-extinction risk more accurately. We propose a framework for constructing ecological network models representing real-world food webs in terrestrial ecosystems and subjecting these models to co-extinction scenarios triggered by probable future environmental perturbations. Adopting our framework will improve estimates of how environmental perturbations affect whole ecological communities. Identifying species at risk of co-extinction (or those that might trigger co-extinctions) will also guide conservation interventions aiming to reduce the probability of co-extinction cascades and additional species losses 
650 4 |a Journal Article 
650 4 |a Review 
650 4 |a climate change 
650 4 |a co-extinctions 
650 4 |a conservation 
650 4 |a ecological network models 
650 4 |a terrestrial ecosystems 
650 4 |a trophic cascades 
700 1 |a Saltré, Frédérik  |e verfasserin  |4 aut 
700 1 |a Llewelyn, John  |e verfasserin  |4 aut 
700 1 |a Strona, Giovanni  |e verfasserin  |4 aut 
700 1 |a Williams, Stephen E  |e verfasserin  |4 aut 
700 1 |a Bradshaw, Corey J A  |e verfasserin  |4 aut 
773 0 8 |i Enthalten in  |t Global change biology  |d 1999  |g 29(2023), 18 vom: 29. Sept., Seite 5122-5138  |w (DE-627)NLM098239996  |x 1365-2486  |7 nnns 
773 1 8 |g volume:29  |g year:2023  |g number:18  |g day:29  |g month:09  |g pages:5122-5138 
856 4 0 |u http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/gcb.16836  |3 Volltext 
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