Drivers of future alien species impacts An expert-based assessment

Drivers of future alien species impacts : An expert-based assessment

© 2020 The Authors. Global Change Biology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Bibliographische Detailangaben
Veröffentlicht in:Global change biology. - 1999. - 26(2020), 9 vom: 30. Sept., Seite 4880-4893
1. Verfasser: Essl, Franz (VerfasserIn)
Weitere Verfasser: Lenzner, Bernd, Bacher, Sven, Bailey, Sarah, Capinha, Cesar, Daehler, Curtis, Dullinger, Stefan, Genovesi, Piero, Hui, Cang, Hulme, Philip E, Jeschke, Jonathan M, Katsanevakis, Stelios, Kühn, Ingolf, Leung, Brian, Liebhold, Andrew, Liu, Chunlong, MacIsaac, Hugh J, Meyerson, Laura A, Nuñez, Martin A, Pauchard, Aníbal, Pyšek, Petr, Rabitsch, Wolfgang, Richardson, David M, Roy, Helen E, Ruiz, Gregory M, Russell, James C, Sanders, Nathan J, Sax, Dov F, Scalera, Riccardo, Seebens, Hanno, Springborn, Michael, Turbelin, Anna, van Kleunen, Mark, von Holle, Betsy, Winter, Marten, Zenni, Rafael D, Mattsson, Brady J, Roura-Pascual, Nuria
Format: Online-Aufsatz
Sprache:English
Veröffentlicht: 2020
Zugriff auf das übergeordnete Werk:Global change biology
Schlagworte:Journal Article biological invasions expert survey globalization impacts management policy scenarios uncertainties
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500 |a published: Print-Electronic 
500 |a Citation Status MEDLINE 
520 |a © 2020 The Authors. Global Change Biology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. 
520 |a Understanding the likely future impacts of biological invasions is crucial yet highly challenging given the multiple relevant environmental, socio-economic and societal contexts and drivers. In the absence of quantitative models, methods based on expert knowledge are the best option for assessing future invasion trajectories. Here, we present an expert assessment of the drivers of potential alien species impacts under contrasting scenarios and socioecological contexts through the mid-21st century. Based on responses from 36 experts in biological invasions, moderate (20%-30%) increases in invasions, compared to the current conditions, are expected to cause major impacts on biodiversity in most socioecological contexts. Three main drivers of biological invasions-transport, climate change and socio-economic change-were predicted to significantly affect future impacts of alien species on biodiversity even under a best-case scenario. Other drivers (e.g. human demography and migration in tropical and subtropical regions) were also of high importance in specific global contexts (e.g. for individual taxonomic groups or biomes). We show that some best-case scenarios can substantially reduce potential future impacts of biological invasions. However, rapid and comprehensive actions are necessary to use this potential and achieve the goals of the Post-2020 Framework of the Convention on Biological Diversity 
650 4 |a Journal Article 
650 4 |a biological invasions 
650 4 |a expert survey 
650 4 |a globalization 
650 4 |a impacts 
650 4 |a management 
650 4 |a policy 
650 4 |a scenarios 
650 4 |a uncertainties 
700 1 |a Lenzner, Bernd  |e verfasserin  |4 aut 
700 1 |a Bacher, Sven  |e verfasserin  |4 aut 
700 1 |a Bailey, Sarah  |e verfasserin  |4 aut 
700 1 |a Capinha, Cesar  |e verfasserin  |4 aut 
700 1 |a Daehler, Curtis  |e verfasserin  |4 aut 
700 1 |a Dullinger, Stefan  |e verfasserin  |4 aut 
700 1 |a Genovesi, Piero  |e verfasserin  |4 aut 
700 1 |a Hui, Cang  |e verfasserin  |4 aut 
700 1 |a Hulme, Philip E  |e verfasserin  |4 aut 
700 1 |a Jeschke, Jonathan M  |e verfasserin  |4 aut 
700 1 |a Katsanevakis, Stelios  |e verfasserin  |4 aut 
700 1 |a Kühn, Ingolf  |e verfasserin  |4 aut 
700 1 |a Leung, Brian  |e verfasserin  |4 aut 
700 1 |a Liebhold, Andrew  |e verfasserin  |4 aut 
700 1 |a Liu, Chunlong  |e verfasserin  |4 aut 
700 1 |a MacIsaac, Hugh J  |e verfasserin  |4 aut 
700 1 |a Meyerson, Laura A  |e verfasserin  |4 aut 
700 1 |a Nuñez, Martin A  |e verfasserin  |4 aut 
700 1 |a Pauchard, Aníbal  |e verfasserin  |4 aut 
700 1 |a Pyšek, Petr  |e verfasserin  |4 aut 
700 1 |a Rabitsch, Wolfgang  |e verfasserin  |4 aut 
700 1 |a Richardson, David M  |e verfasserin  |4 aut 
700 1 |a Roy, Helen E  |e verfasserin  |4 aut 
700 1 |a Ruiz, Gregory M  |e verfasserin  |4 aut 
700 1 |a Russell, James C  |e verfasserin  |4 aut 
700 1 |a Sanders, Nathan J  |e verfasserin  |4 aut 
700 1 |a Sax, Dov F  |e verfasserin  |4 aut 
700 1 |a Scalera, Riccardo  |e verfasserin  |4 aut 
700 1 |a Seebens, Hanno  |e verfasserin  |4 aut 
700 1 |a Springborn, Michael  |e verfasserin  |4 aut 
700 1 |a Turbelin, Anna  |e verfasserin  |4 aut 
700 1 |a van Kleunen, Mark  |e verfasserin  |4 aut 
700 1 |a von Holle, Betsy  |e verfasserin  |4 aut 
700 1 |a Winter, Marten  |e verfasserin  |4 aut 
700 1 |a Zenni, Rafael D  |e verfasserin  |4 aut 
700 1 |a Mattsson, Brady J  |e verfasserin  |4 aut 
700 1 |a Roura-Pascual, Nuria  |e verfasserin  |4 aut 
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