A Belief-Based Account of Decision under Uncertainty

A Belief-Based Account of Decision under Uncertainty

We develop a belief-based account of decision under uncertainty. This model predicts decisions under uncertainty from (i) judgments of probability, which are assumed to satisfy support theory; and (ii) decisions under risk, which are assumed to satisfy prospect theory. In two experiments, subjects e...

Ausführliche Beschreibung

Bibliographische Detailangaben
Veröffentlicht in:Management Science. - Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences, 1954. - 44(1998), 7, Seite 879-895
1. Verfasser: Fox, Craig R. (VerfasserIn)
Weitere Verfasser: Tversky, Amos
Format: Online-Aufsatz
Sprache:English
Veröffentlicht: 1998
Zugriff auf das übergeordnete Werk:Management Science
Schlagworte:Decision Making Risk Uncertainty Expected Utility Prospect Theory Support Theory Decision Weights Judgment Probability Mathematics mehr... Behavioral sciences Economics Philosophy Applied sciences
LEADER 01000caa a22002652 4500
001 JST056224273
003 DE-627
005 20240622021134.0
007 cr uuu---uuuuu
008 150324s1998 xx |||||o 00| ||eng c
035 |a (DE-627)JST056224273 
035 |a (JST)2634504 
040 |a DE-627  |b ger  |c DE-627  |e rakwb 
041 |a eng 
100 1 |a Fox, Craig R.  |e verfasserin  |4 aut 
245 1 2 |a A Belief-Based Account of Decision under Uncertainty 
264 1 |c 1998 
336 |a Text  |b txt  |2 rdacontent 
337 |a Computermedien  |b c  |2 rdamedia 
338 |a Online-Ressource  |b cr  |2 rdacarrier 
520 |a We develop a belief-based account of decision under uncertainty. This model predicts decisions under uncertainty from (i) judgments of probability, which are assumed to satisfy support theory; and (ii) decisions under risk, which are assumed to satisfy prospect theory. In two experiments, subjects evaluated uncertain prospects and assessed the probability of the respective events. Study 1 involved the 1995 professional basketball playoffs; Study 2 involved the movement of economic indicators in a simulated economy. The results of both studies are consistent with the belief-based account, but violate the partition inequality implied by the classical theory of decision under uncertainty. 
540 |a Copyright 1998 Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences 
650 4 |a Decision Making 
650 4 |a Risk 
650 4 |a Uncertainty 
650 4 |a Expected Utility 
650 4 |a Prospect Theory 
650 4 |a Support Theory 
650 4 |a Decision Weights 
650 4 |a Judgment 
650 4 |a Probability 
650 4 |a Mathematics  |x Applied mathematics  |x Statistics  |x Applied statistics  |x Descriptive statistics  |x Central tendencies  |x Statistical median 
650 4 |a Behavioral sciences  |x Leisure studies  |x Recreation  |x Games  |x Gambling  |x Betting 
650 4 |a Mathematics  |x Mathematical expressions  |x Mathematical functions  |x Weighting functions 
650 4 |a Behavioral sciences  |x Psychology  |x Cognitive psychology  |x Decision theory 
650 4 |a Economics  |x Economic disciplines  |x Financial economics  |x Finance  |x Financial analysis  |x Risk management  |x Risk aversion 
650 4 |a Philosophy  |x Metaphysics  |x Philosophy of mind  |x Concept of mind  |x Judgment 
650 4 |a Economics  |x Economic disciplines  |x Financial economics  |x Financial markets  |x Market conditions  |x Economic uncertainty 
650 4 |a Applied sciences  |x Research methods  |x Modeling 
650 4 |a Mathematics  |x Pure mathematics  |x Probability theory  |x Judgmental probability 
650 4 |a Economics  |x Economic disciplines  |x Applied economics  |x Econometrics  |x Economic indicators 
655 4 |a research-article 
700 1 |a Tversky, Amos  |e verfasserin  |4 aut 
773 0 8 |i Enthalten in  |t Management Science  |d Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences, 1954  |g 44(1998), 7, Seite 879-895  |w (DE-627)320623602  |w (DE-600)2023019-9  |x 15265501  |7 nnns 
773 1 8 |g volume:44  |g year:1998  |g number:7  |g pages:879-895 
856 4 0 |u https://www.jstor.org/stable/2634504  |3 Volltext 
912 |a GBV_USEFLAG_A 
912 |a SYSFLAG_A 
912 |a GBV_JST 
912 |a GBV_ILN_11 
912 |a GBV_ILN_20 
912 |a GBV_ILN_22 
912 |a GBV_ILN_23 
912 |a GBV_ILN_24 
912 |a GBV_ILN_31 
912 |a GBV_ILN_32 
912 |a GBV_ILN_39 
912 |a GBV_ILN_40 
912 |a GBV_ILN_60 
912 |a GBV_ILN_62 
912 |a GBV_ILN_63 
912 |a GBV_ILN_65 
912 |a GBV_ILN_69 
912 |a GBV_ILN_70 
912 |a GBV_ILN_90 
912 |a GBV_ILN_95 
912 |a GBV_ILN_100 
912 |a GBV_ILN_110 
912 |a GBV_ILN_120 
912 |a GBV_ILN_151 
912 |a GBV_ILN_152 
912 |a GBV_ILN_187 
912 |a GBV_ILN_224 
912 |a GBV_ILN_285 
912 |a GBV_ILN_374 
912 |a GBV_ILN_702 
912 |a GBV_ILN_2001 
912 |a GBV_ILN_2003 
912 |a GBV_ILN_2005 
912 |a GBV_ILN_2006 
912 |a GBV_ILN_2007 
912 |a GBV_ILN_2008 
912 |a GBV_ILN_2009 
912 |a GBV_ILN_2010 
912 |a GBV_ILN_2011 
912 |a GBV_ILN_2014 
912 |a GBV_ILN_2015 
912 |a GBV_ILN_2018 
912 |a GBV_ILN_2020 
912 |a GBV_ILN_2021 
912 |a GBV_ILN_2026 
912 |a GBV_ILN_2027 
912 |a GBV_ILN_2034 
912 |a GBV_ILN_2044 
912 |a GBV_ILN_2048 
912 |a GBV_ILN_2050 
912 |a GBV_ILN_2055 
912 |a GBV_ILN_2056 
912 |a GBV_ILN_2057 
912 |a GBV_ILN_2059 
912 |a GBV_ILN_2061 
912 |a GBV_ILN_2065 
912 |a GBV_ILN_2068 
912 |a GBV_ILN_2106 
912 |a GBV_ILN_2107 
912 |a GBV_ILN_2108 
912 |a GBV_ILN_2111 
912 |a GBV_ILN_2112 
912 |a GBV_ILN_2113 
912 |a GBV_ILN_2118 
912 |a GBV_ILN_2122 
912 |a GBV_ILN_2129 
912 |a GBV_ILN_2143 
912 |a GBV_ILN_2147 
912 |a GBV_ILN_2148 
912 |a GBV_ILN_2152 
912 |a GBV_ILN_2153 
912 |a GBV_ILN_2190 
912 |a GBV_ILN_2232 
912 |a GBV_ILN_2472 
912 |a GBV_ILN_2935 
912 |a GBV_ILN_2940 
912 |a GBV_ILN_2949 
912 |a GBV_ILN_2950 
912 |a GBV_ILN_4012 
912 |a GBV_ILN_4035 
912 |a GBV_ILN_4037 
912 |a GBV_ILN_4046 
912 |a GBV_ILN_4112 
912 |a GBV_ILN_4125 
912 |a GBV_ILN_4126 
912 |a GBV_ILN_4242 
912 |a GBV_ILN_4246 
912 |a GBV_ILN_4249 
912 |a GBV_ILN_4251 
912 |a GBV_ILN_4305 
912 |a GBV_ILN_4306 
912 |a GBV_ILN_4307 
912 |a GBV_ILN_4313 
912 |a GBV_ILN_4322 
912 |a GBV_ILN_4323 
912 |a GBV_ILN_4324 
912 |a GBV_ILN_4325 
912 |a GBV_ILN_4326 
912 |a GBV_ILN_4335 
912 |a GBV_ILN_4338 
912 |a GBV_ILN_4346 
912 |a GBV_ILN_4393 
912 |a GBV_ILN_4700 
951 |a AR 
952 |d 44  |j 1998  |e 7  |h 879-895