A Belief-Based Account of Decision under Uncertainty
We develop a belief-based account of decision under uncertainty. This model predicts decisions under uncertainty from (i) judgments of probability, which are assumed to satisfy support theory; and (ii) decisions under risk, which are assumed to satisfy prospect theory. In two experiments, subjects e...
| Veröffentlicht in: | Management Science. - Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences, 1954. - 44(1998), 7, Seite 879-895 |
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| Format: | Online-Aufsatz |
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
1998
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| Zugriff auf das übergeordnete Werk: | Management Science |
| Schlagworte: | Decision Making Risk Uncertainty Expected Utility Prospect Theory Support Theory Decision Weights Judgment Probability Mathematics mehr... |
| Zusammenfassung: | We develop a belief-based account of decision under uncertainty. This model predicts decisions under uncertainty from (i) judgments of probability, which are assumed to satisfy support theory; and (ii) decisions under risk, which are assumed to satisfy prospect theory. In two experiments, subjects evaluated uncertain prospects and assessed the probability of the respective events. Study 1 involved the 1995 professional basketball playoffs; Study 2 involved the movement of economic indicators in a simulated economy. The results of both studies are consistent with the belief-based account, but violate the partition inequality implied by the classical theory of decision under uncertainty. |
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| ISSN: | 15265501 |