A More Robust Definition of Subjective Probability
The goal of choice-theoretic derivations of subjective probability is to separate a decision maker's underlying beliefs (subjective probabilities of events) from their preferences (attitudes toward risk). Classical derivations have all relied upon some form of the Marschak-Samuelson "Indep...
| Veröffentlicht in: | Econometrica. - Wiley. - 60(1992), 4, Seite 745-780 |
|---|---|
| 1. Verfasser: | |
| Weitere Verfasser: | |
| Format: | Online-Aufsatz |
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
1992
|
| Zugriff auf das übergeordnete Werk: | Econometrica |
| Schlagworte: | Subjective probability uncertainty subjective uncertainty non-expected utility theory expected utility theory Leonard J. Savage Economics Mathematics Philosophy |
| Zusammenfassung: | The goal of choice-theoretic derivations of subjective probability is to separate a decision maker's underlying beliefs (subjective probabilities of events) from their preferences (attitudes toward risk). Classical derivations have all relied upon some form of the Marschak-Samuelson "Independence Axiom" or the Savage "Sure-Thing Principle," which imply that preferences over lotteries conform to the expected utility hypothesis. This paper presents a choice-theoretic derivation of subjective probability, in a Savage-type setting of purely subjective uncertainty, which neither assumes nor implies that the decision maker's preferences over lotteries necessarily conform to the expected utility hypothesis. |
|---|---|
| ISSN: | 14680262 |
| DOI: | 10.2307/2951565 |