Estimation of world seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies
© 2024 Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group.
| Veröffentlicht in: | Journal of applied statistics. - 1991. - 51(2024), 15 vom: 06., Seite 3039-3058 |
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| Weitere Verfasser: | , , |
| Format: | Online-Aufsatz |
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
2024
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| Zugriff auf das übergeordnete Werk: | Journal of applied statistics |
| Schlagworte: | Journal Article Bayesian model SARS-CoV-2 antibodies hierarchical model vaccination world seroprevalence |
| Zusammenfassung: | © 2024 Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group. In this paper, we estimate the seroprevalence against COVID-19 by country and derive the seroprevalence over the world. To estimate seroprevalence among adults, we use serological surveys (also called the serosurveys) conducted within each country. When the serosurveys are incorporated to estimate world seroprevalence, there are two issues. First, there are countries in which a serological survey has not been conducted. Second, the sample collection dates differ from country to country. We attempt to tackle these problems using the vaccination data, confirmed cases data, and national statistics. We construct Bayesian models to estimate the numbers of people who have antibodies produced by infection or vaccination separately. For the number of people with antibodies due to infection, we develop a hierarchical model for combining the information included in both confirmed cases data and national statistics. At the same time, we propose regression models to estimate missing values in the vaccination data. As of 31st of July 2021, using the proposed methods, we obtain the 95 % credible interval of the world seroprevalence as [ 35.5 % , 56.8 % ] |
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| Beschreibung: | Date Revised 08.11.2024 published: Electronic-eCollection Citation Status PubMed-not-MEDLINE |
| ISSN: | 0266-4763 |
| DOI: | 10.1080/02664763.2024.2335569 |