Shrinking suitable habitat of a sub-Arctic foundation kelp under future climate scenarios

© 2024 The Author(s). Journal of Phycology published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of Phycological Society of America.

Bibliographische Detailangaben
Veröffentlicht in:Journal of phycology. - 1966. - 60(2024), 5 vom: 23. Okt., Seite 1319-1331
1. Verfasser: Li, Huiru (VerfasserIn)
Weitere Verfasser: Qu, Junmei, Zhang, Zhixin, Kang, Eun Ju, Edwards, Matthew S, Kim, Ju-Hyoung
Format: Online-Aufsatz
Sprache:English
Veröffentlicht: 2024
Zugriff auf das übergeordnete Werk:Journal of phycology
Schlagworte:Journal Article Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't Eualaria fistulosa climate change northward shift species distribution models sub‐Arctic kelp
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520 |a Climate change has profound effects on the distribution of kelp forests in the Arctic and sub-Arctic. However, studies on the responses of kelps to climate change, particularly along the sub-Arctic regions of the Alaska coast, are limited. Eualaria fistulosa is a foundational kelp species in the Aleutian Islands, with an east-west distribution that extends from Japan to southern southwest Alaska. In this study, we utilized a species distribution model (SDM) to explore changes in the future habitat suitability of E. fistulosa under contrasting Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios. Our model exhibited relatively high predictive performance, validating our SDM predictions. Notably, the SDM results indicate that minimum sea surface temperature, annual range in sea surface temperatures, and annual mean current velocities are the three most important predictor variables determining E. fistulosa's distribution. Furthermore, the projected geographic distribution of Eualaria is generally consistent with its observed occurrence records. However, under high emission scenarios (SSP5-8.5), E. fistulosa is predicted to contract its distribution range by 9.0% by 2100, with widespread disappearance along the southeast Alaskan coast and limited northward migration to Kamchatka Krai in Russia and Bristol Bay in Alaska. These findings contribute valuable insights for conservation strategies via addressing climate-induced alterations in sub-Arctic kelp distribution 
650 4 |a Journal Article 
650 4 |a Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't 
650 4 |a Eualaria fistulosa 
650 4 |a climate change 
650 4 |a northward shift 
650 4 |a species distribution models 
650 4 |a sub‐Arctic kelp 
700 1 |a Qu, Junmei  |e verfasserin  |4 aut 
700 1 |a Zhang, Zhixin  |e verfasserin  |4 aut 
700 1 |a Kang, Eun Ju  |e verfasserin  |4 aut 
700 1 |a Edwards, Matthew S  |e verfasserin  |4 aut 
700 1 |a Kim, Ju-Hyoung  |e verfasserin  |4 aut 
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