Out of the frying pan into the fire : Predicted warming in alpine streams suggests hidden consequences for aquatic ectotherms

Bibliographische Detailangaben
Veröffentlicht in:	Global change biology. - 1999. - 30(2024), 6 vom: 12. Juni, Seite e17364
1. Verfasser:	Shackleton, M E (VerfasserIn)
Weitere Verfasser:	Siebers, A R, Suter, P J, Lines, O, Holland, A, Morgan, J W, Silvester, E
Format:	Online-Aufsatz
Sprache:	English
Veröffentlicht:	2024
Zugriff auf das übergeordnete Werk:	Global change biology
Schlagworte:	Journal Article climate change cumulative degree days phenology temperature model voltinism

Beschreibung
Zusammenfassung:	Global Change Biology© 2024 The Author(s). Global Change Biology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. Thermal regimes of aquatic ecosystems are predicted to change as climate warming progresses over the next century, with high-latitude and high-elevation regions predicted to be particularly impacted. Here, we have modelled alpine stream water temperatures from air temperature data and used future predicted air temperature trajectories (representative concentration pathway [rcp] 4.5 and 8.5) to predict future water temperatures. Modelled stream water temperatures have been used to calculate cumulative degree days (CDDs) under current and future climate conditions. These calculations show that degree days will accumulate more rapidly under the future climate scenarios, and with a stronger effect for higher CDD values (e.g., rcp 4.5: 18-28 days earlier [CDD = 500]; 42-55 days earlier [CDD = 2000]). Changes to the time to achieve specific CDDs may have profound and unexpected consequences for alpine ecosystems. Our calculations show that while the effect of increased CDDs may be relatively small for organisms that emerge in spring-summer, the effects for organisms emerging in late summer-autumn may be substantial. For these organisms, the air temperatures experienced upon emergence could reach 9°C (rcp 4.5) or 12°C (rcp 8.5) higher than under current climate conditions, likely impacting on the metabolism of adults, the availability of resources, including food and suitable oviposition habitat, and reproductive success. Given that the movement of aquatic fauna to the terrestrial environment represents an important flux of energy and nutrients, differential changes in the time periods to achieve CDDs for aquatic and terrestrial fauna may de-couple existing predator-prey interactions
Beschreibung:	Date Completed 12.06.2024 Date Revised 12.06.2024 published: Print Citation Status MEDLINE
ISSN:	1365-2486
DOI:	10.1111/gcb.17364