Modeling individual growth reveals decreasing gray whale body length and correlations with ocean climate indices at multiple scales

© 2024 The Author(s). Global Change Biology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Bibliographische Detailangaben
Veröffentlicht in:Global change biology. - 1999. - 30(2024), 6 vom: 07. Juni, Seite e17366
1. Verfasser: Pirotta, Enrico (VerfasserIn)
Weitere Verfasser: Bierlich, K C, New, Leslie, Hildebrand, Lisa, Bird, Clara N, Fernandez Ajó, Alejandro, Torres, Leigh G
Format: Online-Aufsatz
Sprache:English
Veröffentlicht: 2024
Zugriff auf das übergeordnete Werk:Global change biology
Schlagworte:Journal Article Bayesian modeling Pacific Decadal Oscillation baleen whales drones morphology photogrammetry shrinking size upwelling and relaxation
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520 |a Changes in body size have been documented across taxa in response to human activities and climate change. Body size influences many aspects of an individual's physiology, behavior, and ecology, ultimately affecting life history performance and resilience to stressors. In this study, we developed an analytical approach to model individual growth patterns using aerial imagery collected via drones, which can be used to investigate shifts in body size in a population and the associated drivers. We applied the method to a large morphological dataset of gray whales (Eschrichtius robustus) using a distinct foraging ground along the NE Pacific coast, and found that the asymptotic length of these whales has declined since around the year 2000 at an average rate of 0.05-0.12 m/y. The decline has been stronger in females, which are estimated to be now comparable in size to males, minimizing sexual dimorphism. We show that the decline in asymptotic length is correlated with two oceanographic metrics acting as proxies of habitat quality at different scales: the mean Pacific Decadal Oscillation index, and the mean ratio between upwelling intensity in a season and the number of relaxation events. These results suggest that the decline in gray whale body size may represent a plastic response to changing environmental conditions. Decreasing body size could have cascading effects on the population's demography, ability to adjust to environmental changes, and ecological influence on the structure of their community. This finding adds to the mounting evidence that body size is shrinking in several marine populations in association with climate change and other anthropogenic stressors. Our modeling approach is broadly applicable across multiple systems where morphological data on megafauna are collected using drones 
650 4 |a Journal Article 
650 4 |a Bayesian modeling 
650 4 |a Pacific Decadal Oscillation 
650 4 |a baleen whales 
650 4 |a drones 
650 4 |a morphology 
650 4 |a photogrammetry 
650 4 |a shrinking size 
650 4 |a upwelling and relaxation 
700 1 |a Bierlich, K C  |e verfasserin  |4 aut 
700 1 |a New, Leslie  |e verfasserin  |4 aut 
700 1 |a Hildebrand, Lisa  |e verfasserin  |4 aut 
700 1 |a Bird, Clara N  |e verfasserin  |4 aut 
700 1 |a Fernandez Ajó, Alejandro  |e verfasserin  |4 aut 
700 1 |a Torres, Leigh G  |e verfasserin  |4 aut 
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773 1 8 |g volume:30  |g year:2024  |g number:6  |g day:07  |g month:06  |g pages:e17366 
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