Perspectives on the timing of ecosystem collapse in a changing climate
© 2024 Society for Conservation Biology.
| Veröffentlicht in: | Conservation biology : the journal of the Society for Conservation Biology. - 1999. - 38(2024), 4 vom: 28. Juli, Seite e14247 |
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| Weitere Verfasser: | , , , , , |
| Format: | Online-Aufsatz |
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
2024
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| Zugriff auf das übergeordnete Werk: | Conservation biology : the journal of the Society for Conservation Biology |
| Schlagworte: | Journal Article abiotic variables calentamiento global cambio global colapso ecosistémico ecosystem collapse forecasting global change global warming momento de aparición mehr... |
| Zusammenfassung: | © 2024 Society for Conservation Biology. Climate change is one of the most important drivers of ecosystem change, the global-scale impacts of which will intensify over the next 2 decades. Estimating the timing of unprecedented changes is not only challenging but is of great importance for the development of ecosystem conservation guidelines. Time of emergence (ToE) (point at which climate change can be differentiated from a previous climate), a widely applied concept in climatology studies, provides a robust but unexplored approach for assessing the risk of ecosystem collapse, as described by the C criterion of the International Union for Conservation of Nature's Red List of Ecosystems (RLE). We identified 3 main theoretical considerations of ToE for RLE assessment (degree of stability, multifactorial instead of one-dimensional analyses, and hallmarks of ecosystem collapse) and 4 sources of uncertainty when applying ToE methodology (intermodel spread, historical reference period, consensus among variables, and consideration of different scenarios), which aims to avoid misuse and errors while promoting a proper application of the framework by scientists and practitioners. The incorporation of ToE for the RLE assessments adds important information for conservation priority setting that allows prediction of changes within and beyond the time frames proposed by the RLE |
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| Beschreibung: | Date Completed 23.07.2024 Date Revised 23.07.2024 published: Print-Electronic Citation Status MEDLINE |
| ISSN: | 1523-1739 |
| DOI: | 10.1111/cobi.14247 |