A multivariate spatiotemporal model for tracking COVID-19 incidence and death rates in socially vulnerable populations

A multivariate spatiotemporal model for tracking COVID-19 incidence and death rates in socially vulnerable populations

© 2022 Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group.

Bibliographische Detailangaben
Veröffentlicht in:Journal of applied statistics. - 1991. - 50(2023), 8 vom: 13., Seite 1812-1835
1. Verfasser: Neelon, Brian (VerfasserIn)
Weitere Verfasser: Wen, Chun-Che, Benjamin-Neelon, Sara E
Format: Online-Aufsatz
Sprache:English
Veröffentlicht: 2023
Zugriff auf das übergeordnete Werk:Journal of applied statistics
Schlagworte:Journal Article Gaussian Markov random field Laplacian matrix Pólya-Gamma data augmentation negative binomial model penalized splines random walk
Beschreibung
Zusammenfassung:© 2022 Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group.
Recent studies have produced inconsistent findings regarding the association between community social vulnerability and COVID-19 incidence and death rates. This inconsistency may be due, in part, to the fact that these studies modeled cases and deaths separately, ignoring their inherent association and thus yielding imprecise estimates. To improve inferences, we develop a Bayesian multivariate negative binomial model for exploring joint spatial and temporal trends in COVID-19 infections and deaths. The model introduces smooth functions that capture long-term temporal trends, while maintaining enough flexibility to detect local outbreaks in areas with vulnerable populations. Using multivariate autoregressive priors, we jointly model COVID-19 cases and deaths over time, taking advantage of convenient conditional representations to improve posterior computation. As such, the proposed model provides a general framework for multivariate spatiotemporal modeling of counts and rates. We adopt a fully Bayesian approach and develop an efficient posterior Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm that relies on easily sampled Gibbs steps. We use the model to examine incidence and death rates among counties with high and low social vulnerability in the state of Georgia, USA, from 15 March to 15 December 2020
Beschreibung:Date Revised 04.06.2023
published: Electronic-eCollection
Citation Status PubMed-not-MEDLINE
ISSN:0266-4763
DOI:10.1080/02664763.2022.2046713