Demographic resilience may sustain significant coral populations in a 2°C-warmer world
© 2023 The Authors. Global Change Biology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
| Veröffentlicht in: | Global change biology. - 1999. - 29(2023), 14 vom: 03. Juli, Seite 4152-4160 |
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| Format: | Online-Aufsatz |
| Sprache: | English |
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2023
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| Zugriff auf das übergeordnete Werk: | Global change biology |
| Schlagworte: | Journal Article Representative Concentration Pathway benthic community composition coral cover coral reef demography ecological model individual-based model multi-model ensemble ocean warming |
| Zusammenfassung: | © 2023 The Authors. Global Change Biology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. Projections of coral reefs under climate change have important policy implications, but most analyses have focused on the intensification of climate-related physical stress rather than explicitly modelling how coral populations respond to stressors. Here, we analyse the future of the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) under multiple, spatially realistic drivers which allows less impacted sites to facilitate recovery. Under a Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6 CMIP5 climate ensemble, where warming is capped at ~2°C, GBR mean coral cover declined mid-century but approached present-day levels towards 2100. This is considerably more optimistic than most analyses. However, under RCP4.5, mean coral cover declined by >80% by late-century, and reached near zero under RCP ≥6.0. While these models do not allow for adaptation, they significantly extend past studies by revealing demographic resilience of coral populations to low levels of additional warming, though more pessimistic outcomes might be expected under CMIP6. Substantive coral populations under RCP2.6 would facilitate long-term genetic adaptation, adding value to ambitious greenhouse emissions mitigation |
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| Beschreibung: | Date Completed 15.06.2023 Date Revised 31.08.2023 published: Print-Electronic Citation Status MEDLINE |
| ISSN: | 1365-2486 |
| DOI: | 10.1111/gcb.16741 |