Phenotypic plasticity increases exposure to extreme climatic events that reduce individual fitness

© 2023 The Authors. Global Change Biology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Bibliographische Detailangaben
Veröffentlicht in:Global change biology. - 1999. - 29(2023), 11 vom: 24. Juni, Seite 2968-2980
1. Verfasser: Regan, Charlotte E (VerfasserIn)
Weitere Verfasser: Sheldon, Ben C
Format: Online-Aufsatz
Sprache:English
Veröffentlicht: 2023
Zugriff auf das übergeordnete Werk:Global change biology
Schlagworte:Journal Article Wytham woods extreme climatic event great tit laying date rainfall reproductive success temperature
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520 |a Climate models, and empirical observations, suggest that anthropogenic climate change is leading to changes in the occurrence and severity of extreme climatic events (ECEs). Effects of changes in mean climate on phenology, movement, and demography in animal and plant populations are well documented. In contrast, work exploring the impacts of ECEs on natural populations is less common, at least partially due to the challenges of obtaining sufficient data to study such rare events. Here, we assess the effect of changes in ECE patterns in a long-term study of great tits, near Oxford, over a 56-year period between 1965 and 2020. We document marked changes in the frequency of temperature ECEs, with cold ECEs being twice as frequent in the 1960s than at present, and hot ECEs being ~three times more frequent between 2010 and 2020 than in the 1960s. While the effect of single ECEs was generally quite small, we show that increased exposure to ECEs often reduces reproductive output, and that in some cases the effect of different types of ECE is synergistic. We further show that long-term temporal changes in phenology, resulting from phenotypic plasticity, lead to an elevated risk of exposure to low temperature ECEs early in reproduction, and hence suggest that changes in ECE exposure may act as a cost of plasticity. Overall, our analyses reveal a complex set of risks of exposure and effects as ECE patterns change and highlight the importance of considering responses to changes in both mean climate and extreme events. Patterns in exposure and effects of ECEs on natural populations remain underexplored and continued work will be vital to establish the impacts of ECEs on populations in a changing climate 
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650 4 |a Wytham woods 
650 4 |a extreme climatic event 
650 4 |a great tit 
650 4 |a laying date 
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650 4 |a temperature 
700 1 |a Sheldon, Ben C  |e verfasserin  |4 aut 
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