Contrasting seasonal effects of climate change influence density in a cold-adapted species
© 2022 The Authors. Global Change Biology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
| Publié dans: | Global change biology. - 1999. - 28(2022), 21 vom: 05. Nov., Seite 6228-6238 |
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| Auteur principal: | |
| Autres auteurs: | , , |
| Format: | Article en ligne |
| Langue: | English |
| Publié: |
2022
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| Accès à la collection: | Global change biology |
| Sujets: | Journal Article climate change climate scenarios population dynamics population projections snow cover snowshoe hare state-space model temperature |
| Résumé: | © 2022 The Authors. Global Change Biology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. Many ecological processes are profoundly influenced by abiotic factors, such as temperature and snow. However, despite strong evidence linking shifts in these ecological processes to corresponding shifts in abiotic factors driven by climate change, the mechanisms connecting population size to season-specific climate drivers are little understood. Using a 21-year dataset and a Bayesian state space model, we identified biologically informed seasonal climate covariates that influenced densities of snowshoe hares (Lepus americanus), a cold-adapted boreal herbivore. We found that snow and temperature had strong but conflicting season-dependent effects. Reduced snow duration in spring and fall and warmer summers were associated with lowered hare density, whereas warmer winters were associated with increased density. When modeled simultaneously and under two climate change scenarios, the negative effects of reduced fall and spring snow duration and warmer summers overwhelm the positive effect of warmer winters, producing projected population declines. Ultimately, the contrasting population-level impacts of climate change across seasons emphasize the critical need to examine the entire annual climate cycle to understand potential long-term population consequences of climate change |
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| Description: | Date Completed 04.10.2022 Date Revised 04.01.2023 published: Print-Electronic Citation Status MEDLINE |
| ISSN: | 1365-2486 |
| DOI: | 10.1111/gcb.16352 |