Increases in Future AR Count and Size Overview of the ARTMIP Tier 2 CMIP5/6 Experiment

Increases in Future AR Count and Size : Overview of the ARTMIP Tier 2 CMIP5/6 Experiment

© 2021. Battelle Memorial Institute. This article has been contributed to by U.S. Government employees and their work is in the public domain in the USA.

Bibliographische Detailangaben
Veröffentlicht in:Journal of geophysical research. Atmospheres : JGR. - 1998. - 127(2022), 6 vom: 27. März, Seite e2021JD036013
1. Verfasser: O'Brien, T A (VerfasserIn)
Weitere Verfasser: Wehner, M F, Payne, A E, Shields, C A, Rutz, J J, Leung, L-R, Ralph, F M, Collow, A, Gorodetskaya, I, Guan, B, Lora, J M, McClenny, E, Nardi, K M, Ramos, A M, Tomé, R, Sarangi, C, Shearer, E J, Ullrich, P A, Zarzycki, C, Loring, B, Huang, H, Inda-Díaz, H A, Rhoades, A M, Zhou, Y
Format: Online-Aufsatz
Sprache:English
Veröffentlicht: 2022
Zugriff auf das übergeordnete Werk:Journal of geophysical research. Atmospheres : JGR
Schlagworte:Journal Article ARTMIP CMIP atmospheric river climate change extreme precipitation
Beschreibung
Zusammenfassung:© 2021. Battelle Memorial Institute. This article has been contributed to by U.S. Government employees and their work is in the public domain in the USA.
The Atmospheric River (AR) Tracking Method Intercomparison Project (ARTMIP) is a community effort to systematically assess how the uncertainties from AR detectors (ARDTs) impact our scientific understanding of ARs. This study describes the ARTMIP Tier 2 experimental design and initial results using the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) Phases 5 and 6 multi-model ensembles. We show that AR statistics from a given ARDT in CMIP5/6 historical simulations compare remarkably well with the MERRA-2 reanalysis. In CMIP5/6 future simulations, most ARDTs project a global increase in AR frequency, counts, and sizes, especially along the western coastlines of the Pacific and Atlantic oceans. We find that the choice of ARDT is the dominant contributor to the uncertainty in projected AR frequency when compared with model choice. These results imply that new projects investigating future changes in ARs should explicitly consider ARDT uncertainty as a core part of the experimental design
Beschreibung:Date Revised 31.07.2022
published: Print-Electronic
Citation Status PubMed-not-MEDLINE
ISSN:2169-897X
DOI:10.1029/2021JD036013