Integrating experiments to predict interactive cue effects on spring phenology with warming

© 2022 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2022 New Phytologist Foundation.

Bibliographische Detailangaben
Veröffentlicht in:The New phytologist. - 1984. - 235(2022), 5 vom: 31. Sept., Seite 1719-1728
1. Verfasser: Wolkovich, E M (VerfasserIn)
Weitere Verfasser: Chamberlain, C J, Buonaiuto, D M, Ettinger, A K, Morales-Castilla, I
Format: Online-Aufsatz
Sprache:English
Veröffentlicht: 2022
Zugriff auf das übergeordnete Werk:The New phytologist
Schlagworte:Journal Article Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't budburst chilling climate change forcing leafout nonlinear responses photoperiod spring warming
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520 |a Climate change has advanced plant phenology globally 4-6 d °C-1 on average. Such shifts are some of the most reported and predictable biological impacts of rising temperatures. Yet as climate change has marched on, phenological shifts have appeared muted over recent decades - failing to match simple predictions of an advancing spring with continued warming. The main hypothesis for these changing trends is that interactions between spring phenological cues - long-documented in laboratory environments - are playing a greater role in natural environments due to climate change. Here, we argue that accurately linking shifts observed in long-term data to underlying phenological cues is slowed by biases in observational studies and limited integration of insights from laboratory studies. We synthesize seven decades of laboratory experiments to quantify how phenological cue-space has been studied and how treatments compare with shifts caused by climate change. Most studies focus on one cue, limiting our ability to make accurate predictions, but some well-studied forest species offer opportunities to advance forecasting. We outline how greater integration of controlled-environment studies with long-term data could drive a new generation of laboratory experiments, built on physiological insights, that would transform our fundamental understanding of phenology and improve predictions 
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650 4 |a Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't 
650 4 |a budburst 
650 4 |a chilling 
650 4 |a climate change 
650 4 |a forcing 
650 4 |a leafout 
650 4 |a nonlinear responses 
650 4 |a photoperiod 
650 4 |a spring warming 
700 1 |a Chamberlain, C J  |e verfasserin  |4 aut 
700 1 |a Buonaiuto, D M  |e verfasserin  |4 aut 
700 1 |a Ettinger, A K  |e verfasserin  |4 aut 
700 1 |a Morales-Castilla, I  |e verfasserin  |4 aut 
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