Cool microrefugia accumulate and conserve biodiversity under climate change

© 2022 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Bibliographische Detailangaben
Veröffentlicht in:Global change biology. - 1999. - 28(2022), 10 vom: 06. Mai, Seite 3222-3235
1. Verfasser: Nadeau, Christopher P (VerfasserIn)
Weitere Verfasser: Giacomazzo, Anjelica, Urban, Mark C
Format: Online-Aufsatz
Sprache:English
Veröffentlicht: 2022
Zugriff auf das übergeordnete Werk:Global change biology
Schlagworte:Journal Article climate change adaptation conservation decoupling freshwater rock pool microclimate thermophilization
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520 |a A major challenge in climate change biology is to explain why the impacts of climate change vary around the globe. Microclimates could explain some of this variation, but climate change biologists often overlook microclimates because they are difficult to map. Here, we map microclimates in a freshwater rock pool ecosystem and evaluate how accounting for microclimates alters predictions of climate change impacts on aquatic invertebrates. We demonstrate that average maximum temperature during the growing season can differ by 9.9-11.6°C among microclimates less than a meter apart and this microclimate variation might increase by 21% in the future if deeper pools warm less than shallower pools. Accounting for this microclimate variation significantly alters predictions of climate change impacts on aquatic invertebrates. Predictions that exclude microclimates predict low future occupancy (0.08-0.32) and persistence probabilities (2%-73%) for cold-adapted taxa, and therefore predict decreases in gamma richness and a substantial shift toward warm-adapted taxa in local communities (i.e., thermophilization). However, predictions incorporating microclimates suggest cool locations will remain suitable for cold-adapted taxa in the future, no change in gamma richness, and 825% less thermophilization. Our models also suggest that cool locations will become suitable for warm-adapted taxa and will therefore accumulate biodiversity in the future, which makes cool locations essential for biodiversity conservation. Simulated protection of the 10 coolest microclimates (9% of locations on the landscape) results in a 100% chance of conserving all focal taxa in the future. In contrast, protecting the 10 currently most biodiverse locations, a commonly employed conservation strategy, results in a 3% chance of conserving all focal taxa in the future. Our study suggests that we must account for microclimates if we hope to understand the future impacts of climate change and design effective conservation strategies to limit biodiversity loss 
650 4 |a Journal Article 
650 4 |a climate change adaptation 
650 4 |a conservation 
650 4 |a decoupling 
650 4 |a freshwater rock pool 
650 4 |a microclimate 
650 4 |a thermophilization 
700 1 |a Giacomazzo, Anjelica  |e verfasserin  |4 aut 
700 1 |a Urban, Mark C  |e verfasserin  |4 aut 
773 0 8 |i Enthalten in  |t Global change biology  |d 1999  |g 28(2022), 10 vom: 06. Mai, Seite 3222-3235  |w (DE-627)NLM098239996  |x 1365-2486  |7 nnns 
773 1 8 |g volume:28  |g year:2022  |g number:10  |g day:06  |g month:05  |g pages:3222-3235 
856 4 0 |u http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/gcb.16143  |3 Volltext 
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