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231225s2022 xx |||||o 00| ||eng c |
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|a 10.1111/cobi.13901
|2 doi
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|a pubmed24n1124.xml
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|a eng
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|a Kimmel, Kaitlin
|e verfasserin
|4 aut
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|a Impact of multiple small and persistent threats on extinction risk
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|c 2022
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|a Text
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|a ƒaComputermedien
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|a Date Completed 03.10.2022
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|a Date Revised 30.12.2022
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|a published: Print-Electronic
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|a Citation Status MEDLINE
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|a © 2022 The Authors. Conservation Biology published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of Society for Conservation Biology.
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|a Many species may face multiple distinct and persistent drivers of extinction risk, yet theoretical and empirical studies tend to focus on the single largest driver. This means that existing approaches potentially underestimate and mischaracterize future risks to biodiversity. We synthesized existing knowledge on how multiple drivers of extinction can interact to influence a species' overall extinction probability in a probabilistic model of extinction risk that incorporated the impacts of multiple drivers of extinction risk, their interactions, and their accumulative effects through time. We then used this model framework to explore how different threats, interactions between them, and time trends may affect a species' overall extinction probability. Multiple small threats together had potential to pose a large cumulative extinction risk; for example, 10 individual threats posed a 1% extinction risk each and cumulatively posed a 9.7% total extinction risk. Interactions among drivers resulted in escalated risk in some cases, and persistent threats with a small (1%) extinction risk each decade ultimately posed large extinction risk over 100 (9.6% total extinction risk) to 200 years (18.2% total extinction risk). By estimating long-term extinction risk posed by several different factors and their interactions, this approach provides a framework to identify drivers of extinction risk that could be proactively targeted to help prevent species currently of least concern from becoming threatened with extinction
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|a Journal Article
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|a Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
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|a concurrent extinction drivers
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|a efectos sinérgicos
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|a extinction theory
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|a impulsores de la extinción concurrente
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|a long-term extinction probability
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|a marco probabilístico
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|a probabilidad de extinción a largo plazo
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|a probabilistic framework
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|a synergistic effects
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|a teoría de la extinción
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1 |
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|a Clark, Michael
|e verfasserin
|4 aut
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700 |
1 |
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|a Tilman, David
|e verfasserin
|4 aut
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|i Enthalten in
|t Conservation biology : the journal of the Society for Conservation Biology
|d 1999
|g 36(2022), 5 vom: 04. Okt., Seite e13901
|w (DE-627)NLM098176803
|x 1523-1739
|7 nnns
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|g volume:36
|g year:2022
|g number:5
|g day:04
|g month:10
|g pages:e13901
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|u http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/cobi.13901
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