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231225s2022 xx |||||o 00| ||eng c |
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|a 10.1111/gcb.16083
|2 doi
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|a pubmed24n1121.xml
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|a (NLM)35106864
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|a eng
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| 100 |
1 |
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|a Sully, Shannon
|e verfasserin
|4 aut
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| 245 |
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|a Present and future bright and dark spots for coral reefs through climate change
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|c 2022
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|a Text
|b txt
|2 rdacontent
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|a ƒaComputermedien
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|2 rdamedia
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|a ƒa Online-Ressource
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|a Date Completed 04.07.2022
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|a Date Revised 17.09.2022
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|a published: Print-Electronic
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|a CommentIn: Glob Chang Biol. 2022 Aug;28(15):4506-4508. - PMID 35593317
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|a Citation Status MEDLINE
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|a © 2022 The Authors. Global Change Biology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
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|a Marine heatwaves can cause coral bleaching and reduce coral cover on reefs, yet few studies have identified "bright spots," where corals have recently shown a capacity to survive such pressures. We analyzed 7714 worldwide surveys from 1997 to 2018 along with 14 environmental and temperature metrics in a hierarchical Bayesian model to identify conditions that contribute to present-day coral cover. We also identified locations with significantly higher (i.e., "bright spots") and lower coral cover (i.e., "dark spots") than regionally expected. In addition, using 4-km downscaled data of Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5, we projected coral cover on reefs for the years 2050 and 2100. Coral cover on modern reefs was positively associated with historically high maximum sea-surface temperatures (SSTs), and negatively associated with high contemporary SSTs, tropical-cyclone frequencies, and human-population densities. By 2100, under RCP8.5, we projected relative decreases in coral cover of >40% on most reefs globally but projected less decline on reefs in Indonesia, Malaysia, the central Philippines, New Caledonia, Fiji, and French Polynesia, which should be focal localities for multinational networks of protected areas
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|a Journal Article
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| 650 |
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|a bright spots
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| 650 |
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|a climate change
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| 650 |
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4 |
|a coral cover
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| 650 |
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4 |
|a coral cover projections
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| 650 |
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4 |
|a coral ecology
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| 650 |
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4 |
|a hierarchical Bayesian model
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| 700 |
1 |
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|a Hodgson, Gregor
|e verfasserin
|4 aut
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| 700 |
1 |
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|a van Woesik, Robert
|e verfasserin
|4 aut
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| 773 |
0 |
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|i Enthalten in
|t Global change biology
|d 1999
|g 28(2022), 15 vom: 16. Aug., Seite 4509-4522
|w (DE-627)NLM098239996
|x 1365-2486
|7 nnns
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| 773 |
1 |
8 |
|g volume:28
|g year:2022
|g number:15
|g day:16
|g month:08
|g pages:4509-4522
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| 856 |
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|u http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/gcb.16083
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