Improving predictions of invasive fish ranges combining functional and ecological traits with environmental suitability under climate change scenarios

© 2021 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Bibliographische Detailangaben
Veröffentlicht in:Global change biology. - 1999. - 27(2021), 23 vom: 22. Dez., Seite 6086-6102
1. Verfasser: Schickele, Alexandre (VerfasserIn)
Weitere Verfasser: Guidetti, Paolo, Giakoumi, Sylvaine, Zenetos, Argyro, Francour, Patrice, Raybaud, Virginie
Format: Online-Aufsatz
Sprache:English
Veröffentlicht: 2021
Zugriff auf das übergeordnete Werk:Global change biology
Schlagworte:Journal Article Mediterranean Sea alien species climate change functional and ecological traits invasive potential range-expanding species species distribution modelling
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520 |a Biological invasions represent one of the main threats to marine biodiversity. From a conservation perspective, especially in the context of increasing sea warming, it is critical to examine the suitability potential of geographical areas for the arrival of Range-Expanding Introduced and Native Species (REINS), and hence anticipate the risk of such species to become invasive in their new distribution areas. Here, we developed an empirical index, based on functional and bio-ecological traits, that estimates the Invasive Potential (IP; i.e. the potential success in transport, introduction and population establishment) for a set of 13 fishes that are expanding their distributional range into the Mediterranean Sea, the most invaded sea in the world. The IP index showed significant correlation with the observed spreading of REINS. For the six species characterized by the highest IP, we calculated contemporary and future projections of their Environmental Suitability Index (ESI). By using an ensemble modelling approach, we estimated the geographical areas that are likely to be the most impacted by REINS spreading under climate change. Our results demonstrated the importance of functional traits related to reproduction for determining high invasion potential. For most species, we found high contemporary ESI values in the South-eastern Mediterranean Sea and low to intermediate contemporary ESI values in the Adriatic Sea and North-western Mediterranean sector. Moreover, we highlighted a major potential future expansion of high ESI values, and thus REINS IP, towards the northern Mediterranean, especially in the northern Adriatic Sea. This potential future northward expansion highlights the risk associated with climate-induced impacts on ecosystem conservation and fish stock management throughout the entire Mediterranean Sea 
650 4 |a Journal Article 
650 4 |a Mediterranean Sea 
650 4 |a alien species 
650 4 |a climate change 
650 4 |a functional and ecological traits 
650 4 |a invasive potential 
650 4 |a range-expanding species 
650 4 |a species distribution modelling 
700 1 |a Guidetti, Paolo  |e verfasserin  |4 aut 
700 1 |a Giakoumi, Sylvaine  |e verfasserin  |4 aut 
700 1 |a Zenetos, Argyro  |e verfasserin  |4 aut 
700 1 |a Francour, Patrice  |e verfasserin  |4 aut 
700 1 |a Raybaud, Virginie  |e verfasserin  |4 aut 
773 0 8 |i Enthalten in  |t Global change biology  |d 1999  |g 27(2021), 23 vom: 22. Dez., Seite 6086-6102  |w (DE-627)NLM098239996  |x 1365-2486  |7 nnns 
773 1 8 |g volume:27  |g year:2021  |g number:23  |g day:22  |g month:12  |g pages:6086-6102 
856 4 0 |u http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15896  |3 Volltext 
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