Rare Occurrences of Non-cascading Foreshock Activity in Southern California
© 2021. The Authors.
| Publié dans: | Geophysical research letters. - 1984. - 48(2021), 7 vom: 16. Apr., Seite e2020GL091757 |
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| Auteur principal: | |
| Autres auteurs: | , , |
| Format: | Article en ligne |
| Langue: | English |
| Publié: |
2021
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| Accès à la collection: | Geophysical research letters |
| Sujets: | Journal Article ETAS Southern California cascade of earthquakes foreshock low completeness catalog mainshock nucleation |
| Résumé: | © 2021. The Authors. Earthquakes preceding large events are commonly referred to as foreshocks. They are often considered as precursory phenomena reflecting the nucleation process of the main rupture. Such foreshock sequences may also be explained by cascades of triggered events. Recent advances in earthquake detection motivates a reevaluation of seismicity variations prior to mainshocks. Based on a highly complete earthquake catalog, previous studies suggested that mainshocks in Southern California are often preceded by anomalously elevated seismicity. In this study, we test the same catalog against the Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence model that accounts for temporal clustering due to earthquake interactions. We find that 10/53 mainshocks are preceded by a significantly elevated seismic activity compared with our model. This shows that anomalous foreshock activity is relatively uncommon when tested against a model of earthquake interactions. Accounting for the recurrence of anomalies over time, only 3/10 mainshocks present a mainshock-specific anomaly with a high predictive power |
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| Description: | Date Revised 02.04.2024 published: Print-Electronic Citation Status PubMed-not-MEDLINE |
| ISSN: | 0094-8276 |
| DOI: | 10.1029/2020GL091757 |