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231225s2021 xx |||||o 00| ||eng c |
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|a 10.1111/gcb.15780
|2 doi
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|a pubmed24n1091.xml
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|a (DE-627)NLM32743760X
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|a (NLM)34197031
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|a DE-627
|b ger
|c DE-627
|e rakwb
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| 041 |
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|a eng
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| 100 |
1 |
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|a Prestele, Reinhard
|e verfasserin
|4 aut
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| 245 |
1 |
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|a Large variability in response to projected climate and land-use changes among European bumblebee species
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| 264 |
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|c 2021
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| 336 |
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|a Text
|b txt
|2 rdacontent
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| 337 |
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|a ƒaComputermedien
|b c
|2 rdamedia
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| 338 |
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|a ƒa Online-Ressource
|b cr
|2 rdacarrier
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| 500 |
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|a Date Completed 20.09.2021
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| 500 |
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|a Date Revised 20.09.2021
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|a published: Print-Electronic
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|a Citation Status MEDLINE
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| 520 |
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|a © 2021 The Authors. Global Change Biology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
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|a Bumblebees (Bombus ssp.) are among the most important wild pollinators, but many species have suffered from range declines. Land-use change, agricultural intensification, and the associated loss of habitat have been identified as drivers of the observed dynamics, amplifying pressures from a changing climate. However, these drivers are still underrepresented in continental-scale species distribution modeling. Here, we project the potential distribution of 47 European bumblebee species in 2050 and 2080 from existing European-scale distribution maps, based on a set of climate and land-use futures simulated through a regional integrated assessment model and consistent with the RCP-SSP scenario framework. We compare projections including (1) dynamic climate and constant land use (CLIM); (2) constant climate and dynamic land use (LU); and (3) dynamic climate and dynamic land use (COMB) to disentangle the effects of land use and climate change on future habitat suitability, providing the first rigorous continental-scale assessment of linked climate-land-use futures for bumblebees. We find that direct climate impacts, although variable across species, dominate responses for most species, especially under high-end climate change scenarios (up to 99% range loss). Land-use impacts are highly variable across species and scenarios, ranging from severe losses (up to 75% loss) to considerable gains (up to 68% gain) of suitable habitat extent. Rare species thereby tend to be disproportionally affected by both climate and land-use change. COMB projections reveal that land use may amplify, attenuate, or offset changes to suitable habitat extent expected from climate impact depending on species and scenario. Especially in low-end climate change scenarios, land use has the potential to become a game changer in determining the direction and magnitude of range changes, indicating substantial potential for targeted conservation management
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| 650 |
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4 |
|a Journal Article
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| 650 |
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4 |
|a MaxEnt
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| 650 |
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4 |
|a RCP
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| 650 |
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4 |
|a SSP
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| 650 |
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4 |
|a integrated assessment
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| 650 |
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4 |
|a pollinators
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| 650 |
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4 |
|a species distribution modeling
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| 700 |
1 |
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|a Brown, Calum
|e verfasserin
|4 aut
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| 700 |
1 |
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|a Polce, Chiara
|e verfasserin
|4 aut
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| 700 |
1 |
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|a Maes, Joachim
|e verfasserin
|4 aut
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| 700 |
1 |
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|a Whitehorn, Penelope
|e verfasserin
|4 aut
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| 773 |
0 |
8 |
|i Enthalten in
|t Global change biology
|d 1999
|g 27(2021), 19 vom: 01. Okt., Seite 4530-4545
|w (DE-627)NLM098239996
|x 1365-2486
|7 nnns
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| 773 |
1 |
8 |
|g volume:27
|g year:2021
|g number:19
|g day:01
|g month:10
|g pages:4530-4545
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| 856 |
4 |
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|u http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15780
|3 Volltext
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|d 27
|j 2021
|e 19
|b 01
|c 10
|h 4530-4545
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