Predicting species and community responses to global change using structured expert judgement An Australian mountain ecosystems case study

Predicting species and community responses to global change using structured expert judgement : An Australian mountain ecosystems case study

© 2021 The Authors. Global Change Biology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Bibliographische Detailangaben
Veröffentlicht in:Global change biology. - 1999. - 27(2021), 18 vom: 05. Sept., Seite 4420-4434
1. Verfasser: Camac, James S (VerfasserIn)
Weitere Verfasser: Umbers, Kate D L, Morgan, John W, Geange, Sonya R, Hanea, Anca, Slatyer, Rachel A, McDougall, Keith L, Venn, Susanna E, Vesk, Peter A, Hoffmann, Ary A, Nicotra, Adrienne B
Format: Online-Aufsatz
Sprache:English
Veröffentlicht: 2021
Zugriff auf das übergeordnete Werk:Global change biology
Schlagworte:Journal Article adaptive capacity alpine biodiversity conservation climate change expert elicitation exposure risk
Beschreibung
Zusammenfassung:© 2021 The Authors. Global Change Biology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
Conservation managers are under increasing pressure to make decisions about the allocation of finite resources to protect biodiversity under a changing climate. However, the impacts of climate and global change drivers on species are outpacing our capacity to collect the empirical data necessary to inform these decisions. This is particularly the case in the Australian Alps which have already undergone recent changes in climate and experienced more frequent large-scale bushfires. In lieu of empirical data, we use a structured expert elicitation method (the IDEA protocol) to estimate the change in abundance and distribution of nine vegetation groups and 89 Australian alpine and subalpine species by the year 2050. Experts predicted that most alpine vegetation communities would decline in extent by 2050; only woodlands and heathlands are predicted to increase in extent. Predicted species-level responses for alpine plants and animals were highly variable and uncertain. In general, alpine plants spanned the range of possible responses, with some expected to increase, decrease or not change in cover. By contrast, almost all animal species are predicted to decline or not change in abundance or elevation range; more species with water-centric life-cycles are expected to decline in abundance than other species. While long-term ecological data will always be the gold standard for informing the future of biodiversity, the method and outcomes outlined here provide a pragmatic and coherent basis upon which to start informing conservation policy and management in the face of rapid change and a paucity of data
Beschreibung:Date Completed 17.08.2021
Date Revised 29.09.2021
published: Print-Electronic
Citation Status MEDLINE
ISSN:1365-2486
DOI:10.1111/gcb.15750