Annual precipitation explains variability in dryland vegetation greenness globally but not locally

© 2021 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Bibliographische Detailangaben
Veröffentlicht in:Global change biology. - 1999. - 27(2021), 18 vom: 15. Sept., Seite 4367-4380
1. Verfasser: Ukkola, Anna M (VerfasserIn)
Weitere Verfasser: De Kauwe, Martin G, Roderick, Michael L, Burrell, Arden, Lehmann, Peter, Pitman, Andy J
Format: Online-Aufsatz
Sprache:English
Veröffentlicht: 2021
Zugriff auf das übergeordnete Werk:Global change biology
Schlagworte:Journal Article Earth system models climate change drylands precipitation space-for-time substitution vegetation Soil Water 059QF0KO0R
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520 |a Dryland vegetation productivity is strongly modulated by water availability. As precipitation patterns and variability are altered by climate change, there is a pressing need to better understand vegetation responses to precipitation variability in these ecologically fragile regions. Here we present a global analysis of dryland sensitivity to annual precipitation variations using long-term records of normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). We show that while precipitation explains 66% of spatial gradients in NDVI across dryland regions, precipitation only accounts for <26% of temporal NDVI variability over most (>75%) dryland regions. We observed this weaker temporal relative to spatial relationship between NDVI and precipitation across all global drylands. We confirmed this result using three alternative water availability metrics that account for water loss to evaporation, and growing season and precipitation timing. This suggests that predicting vegetation responses to future rainfall using space-for-time substitution will strongly overestimate precipitation control on interannual variability in aboveground growth. We explore multiple mechanisms to explain the discrepancy between spatial and temporal responses and find contributions from multiple factors including local-scale vegetation characteristics, climate and soil properties. Earth system models (ESMs) from the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project overestimate the observed vegetation sensitivity to precipitation variability up to threefold, particularly during dry years. Given projections of increasing meteorological drought, ESMs are likely to overestimate the impacts of future drought on dryland vegetation with observations suggesting that dryland vegetation is more resistant to annual precipitation variations than ESMs project 
650 4 |a Journal Article 
650 4 |a Earth system models 
650 4 |a climate change 
650 4 |a drylands 
650 4 |a precipitation 
650 4 |a space-for-time substitution 
650 4 |a vegetation 
650 7 |a Soil  |2 NLM 
650 7 |a Water  |2 NLM 
650 7 |a 059QF0KO0R  |2 NLM 
700 1 |a De Kauwe, Martin G  |e verfasserin  |4 aut 
700 1 |a Roderick, Michael L  |e verfasserin  |4 aut 
700 1 |a Burrell, Arden  |e verfasserin  |4 aut 
700 1 |a Lehmann, Peter  |e verfasserin  |4 aut 
700 1 |a Pitman, Andy J  |e verfasserin  |4 aut 
773 0 8 |i Enthalten in  |t Global change biology  |d 1999  |g 27(2021), 18 vom: 15. Sept., Seite 4367-4380  |w (DE-627)NLM098239996  |x 1365-2486  |7 nnas 
773 1 8 |g volume:27  |g year:2021  |g number:18  |g day:15  |g month:09  |g pages:4367-4380 
856 4 0 |u http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15729  |3 Volltext 
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