Distinct interspecific and intraspecific vulnerability of coastal species to global change

© 2021 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Bibliographische Detailangaben
Veröffentlicht in:Global change biology. - 1999. - 27(2021), 15 vom: 21. Aug., Seite 3415-3431
1. Verfasser: Nielsen, Erica S (VerfasserIn)
Weitere Verfasser: Henriques, Romina, Beger, Maria, von der Heyden, Sophie
Format: Online-Aufsatz
Sprache:English
Veröffentlicht: 2021
Zugriff auf das übergeordnete Werk:Global change biology
Schlagworte:Journal Article adaptive potential climate change ecological modelling genomic offset gradient forest marine invertebrates seascape genomics species distribution models
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520 |a Characterising and predicting species responses to anthropogenic global change is one of the key challenges in contemporary ecology and conservation. The sensitivity of marine species to climate change is increasingly being described with forecasted species distributions, yet these rarely account for population level processes such as genomic variation and local adaptation. This study compares inter- and intraspecific patterns of biological composition to determine how vulnerability to climate change, and its environmental drivers, vary across species and populations. We compare species trajectories for three ecologically important southern African marine invertebrates at two time points in the future, both at the species level, with correlative species distribution models, and at the population level, with gradient forest models. Reported range shifts are species-specific and include both predicted range gains and losses. Forecasted species responses to climate change are strongly influenced by changes in a suite of environmental variables, from sea surface salinity and sea surface temperature, to minimum air temperature. Our results further suggest a mismatch between future habitat suitability (where species can remain in their ecological niche) and genomic vulnerability (where populations retain their genomic composition), highlighting the inter- and intraspecific variability in species' sensitivity to global change. Overall, this study demonstrates the importance of considering species and population level climatic vulnerability when proactively managing coastal marine ecosystems in the Anthropocene 
650 4 |a Journal Article 
650 4 |a adaptive potential 
650 4 |a climate change 
650 4 |a ecological modelling 
650 4 |a genomic offset 
650 4 |a gradient forest 
650 4 |a marine invertebrates 
650 4 |a seascape genomics 
650 4 |a species distribution models 
700 1 |a Henriques, Romina  |e verfasserin  |4 aut 
700 1 |a Beger, Maria  |e verfasserin  |4 aut 
700 1 |a von der Heyden, Sophie  |e verfasserin  |4 aut 
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773 1 8 |g volume:27  |g year:2021  |g number:15  |g day:21  |g month:08  |g pages:3415-3431 
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