Black locust (Robinia pseudoacacia L.) range contraction and expansion in Europe under changing climate

© 2020 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Détails bibliographiques
Publié dans:Global change biology. - 1999. - 27(2021), 8 vom: 01. Apr., Seite 1587-1600
Auteur principal: Puchałka, Radosław (Auteur)
Autres auteurs: Dyderski, Marcin K, Vítková, Michaela, Sádlo, Jiří, Klisz, Marcin, Netsvetov, Maksym, Prokopuk, Yulia, Matisons, Roberts, Mionskowski, Marcin, Wojda, Tomasz, Koprowski, Marcin, Jagodziński, Andrzej M
Format: Article en ligne
Langue:English
Publié: 2021
Accès à la collection:Global change biology
Sujets:Journal Article Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't MaxEnt bioclimatic modeling biological invasions forest management nature conservation niche modeling species distribution models
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520 |a Robinia pseudoacacia is one of the most frequent non-native species in Europe. It is a fast-growing tree of high economic and cultural importance. On the other hand, it is an invasive species, causing changes in soil chemistry and light regime, and consequently altering the plant communities. Previously published models developed for the potential distribution of R. pseudoacacia concerned 2070, and were based mainly on data from Western and Central Europe; here we extended these findings and included additional data from Eastern Europe. To fill the gap in current knowledge of R. pseudoacacia distribution and improve the reliability of forecasts, we aimed to (i) determine the extent to which the outcome of range modeling will be affected by complementing R. pseudoacacia occurrence data with sites from Central, Southeastern, and Eastern Europe, (ii) identify and quantify the changes in the availability of climate niches for 2050 and 2070, and discuss their impacts on forest management and nature conservation. We showed that the majority of the range changes expected in 2070 will occur as early as 2050. In comparison to previous studies, we demonstrated a greater eastward shift of potential niches of this species and a greater decline of potential niches in Southern Europe. Consequently, future climatic conditions will likely favor the occurrence of R. pseudoacacia in Central and Northeastern Europe where this species is still absent or relatively rare. There, controlling the spread of R. pseudoacacia will require monitoring sources of invasion in the landscape and reducing the occurrence of this species. The expected effects of climate change will likely be observed 20 years earlier than previously forecasted. Hence we highlighted the urgent need for acceleration of policies aimed at climate change mitigation in Europe. Also, our results showed the need for using more complete distribution data to analyze potential niche models 
650 4 |a Journal Article 
650 4 |a Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't 
650 4 |a MaxEnt 
650 4 |a bioclimatic modeling 
650 4 |a biological invasions 
650 4 |a forest management 
650 4 |a nature conservation 
650 4 |a niche modeling 
650 4 |a species distribution models 
700 1 |a Dyderski, Marcin K  |e verfasserin  |4 aut 
700 1 |a Vítková, Michaela  |e verfasserin  |4 aut 
700 1 |a Sádlo, Jiří  |e verfasserin  |4 aut 
700 1 |a Klisz, Marcin  |e verfasserin  |4 aut 
700 1 |a Netsvetov, Maksym  |e verfasserin  |4 aut 
700 1 |a Prokopuk, Yulia  |e verfasserin  |4 aut 
700 1 |a Matisons, Roberts  |e verfasserin  |4 aut 
700 1 |a Mionskowski, Marcin  |e verfasserin  |4 aut 
700 1 |a Wojda, Tomasz  |e verfasserin  |4 aut 
700 1 |a Koprowski, Marcin  |e verfasserin  |4 aut 
700 1 |a Jagodziński, Andrzej M  |e verfasserin  |4 aut 
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