Bridging gaps in demographic analysis with phylogenetic imputation

© 2020 The Authors. Conservation Biology published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of Society for Conservation Biology.

Bibliographische Detailangaben
Veröffentlicht in:Conservation biology : the journal of the Society for Conservation Biology. - 1999. - 35(2021), 4 vom: 01. Aug., Seite 1210-1221
1. Verfasser: James, Tamora D (VerfasserIn)
Weitere Verfasser: Salguero-Gómez, Roberto, Jones, Owen R, Childs, Dylan Z, Beckerman, Andrew P
Format: Online-Aufsatz
Sprache:English
Veröffentlicht: 2021
Zugriff auf das übergeordnete Werk:Conservation biology : the journal of the Society for Conservation Biology
Schlagworte:Journal Article Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't conservation modeling demographic models dinámicas poblacionales estimación de parámetros extinction risk generation time modelado de la conservación modelos demográficos mehr... parameter estimation population dynamics population growth rate riesgo de extinción supervivencia survival tasa de crecimiento poblacional tiempo de generación 世代时长 人口模型 保护模型 参数估计 存活 灭绝风险 种群动态 种群增长率
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520 |a © 2020 The Authors. Conservation Biology published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of Society for Conservation Biology. 
520 |a Phylogenetically informed imputation methods have rarely been applied to estimate missing values in demographic data but may be a powerful tool for reconstructing vital rates of survival, maturation, and fecundity for species of conservation concern. Imputed vital rates could be used to parameterize demographic models to explore how populations respond when vital rates are perturbed. We used standardized vital rate estimates for 50 bird species to assess the use of phylogenetic imputation to fill gaps in demographic data. We calculated imputation accuracy for vital rates of focal species excluded from the data set either singly or in combination and with and without phylogeny, body mass, and life-history trait data. We used imputed vital rates to calculate demographic metrics, including generation time, to validate the use of imputation in demographic analyses. Covariance among vital rates and other trait data provided a strong basis to guide imputation of missing vital rates in birds, even in the absence of phylogenetic information. Mean NRMSE for null and phylogenetic models differed by <0.01 except when no vital rates were available or for vital rates with high phylogenetic signal (Pagel's λ > 0.8). In these cases, including body mass and life-history trait data compensated for lack of phylogenetic information: mean normalized root mean square error (NRMSE) for null and phylogenetic models differed by <0.01 for adult survival and <0.04 for maturation rate. Estimates of demographic metrics were sensitive to the accuracy of imputed vital rates. For example, mean error in generation time doubled in response to inaccurate estimates of maturation time. Accurate demographic data and metrics, such as generation time, are needed to inform conservation planning processes, for example through International Union for Conservation of Nature Red List assessments and population viability analysis. Imputed vital rates could be useful in this context but, as for any estimated model parameters, awareness of the sensitivities of demographic model outputs to the imputed vital rates is essential 
650 4 |a Journal Article 
650 4 |a Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't 
650 4 |a conservation modeling 
650 4 |a demographic models 
650 4 |a dinámicas poblacionales 
650 4 |a estimación de parámetros 
650 4 |a extinction risk 
650 4 |a generation time 
650 4 |a modelado de la conservación 
650 4 |a modelos demográficos 
650 4 |a parameter estimation 
650 4 |a population dynamics 
650 4 |a population growth rate 
650 4 |a riesgo de extinción 
650 4 |a supervivencia 
650 4 |a survival 
650 4 |a tasa de crecimiento poblacional 
650 4 |a tiempo de generación 
650 4 |a 世代时长 
650 4 |a 人口模型 
650 4 |a 保护模型 
650 4 |a 参数估计 
650 4 |a 存活 
650 4 |a 灭绝风险 
650 4 |a 种群动态 
650 4 |a 种群增长率 
700 1 |a Salguero-Gómez, Roberto  |e verfasserin  |4 aut 
700 1 |a Jones, Owen R  |e verfasserin  |4 aut 
700 1 |a Childs, Dylan Z  |e verfasserin  |4 aut 
700 1 |a Beckerman, Andrew P  |e verfasserin  |4 aut 
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773 1 8 |g volume:35  |g year:2021  |g number:4  |g day:01  |g month:08  |g pages:1210-1221 
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