Projected Future Changes in Tropical Cyclones Using the CMIP6 HighResMIP Multimodel Ensemble

Projected Future Changes in Tropical Cyclones Using the CMIP6 HighResMIP Multimodel Ensemble

©2020. Crown copyright.

Bibliographische Detailangaben
Veröffentlicht in:Geophysical research letters. - 1984. - 47(2020), 14 vom: 28. Juli, Seite e2020GL088662
1. Verfasser: Roberts, Malcolm John (VerfasserIn)
Weitere Verfasser: Camp, Joanne, Seddon, Jon, Vidale, Pier Luigi, Hodges, Kevin, Vannière, Benoît, Mecking, Jenny, Haarsma, Rein, Bellucci, Alessio, Scoccimarro, Enrico, Caron, Louis-Philippe, Chauvin, Fabrice, Terray, Laurent, Valcke, Sophie, Moine, Marie-Pierre, Putrasahan, Dian, Roberts, Christopher D, Senan, Retish, Zarzycki, Colin, Ullrich, Paul, Yamada, Yohei, Mizuta, Ryo, Kodama, Chihiro, Fu, Dan, Zhang, Qiuying, Danabasoglu, Gokhan, Rosenbloom, Nan, Wang, Hong, Wu, Lixin
Format: Online-Aufsatz
Sprache:English
Veröffentlicht: 2020
Zugriff auf das übergeordnete Werk:Geophysical research letters
Schlagworte:Journal Article CMIP6 future change high resolution model bias tracking algorithms tropical cyclones
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520 |a Future changes in tropical cyclone properties are an important component of climate change impacts and risk for many tropical and midlatitude countries. In this study we assess the performance of a multimodel ensemble of climate models, at resolutions ranging from 250 to 25 km. We use a common experimental design including both atmosphere-only and coupled simulations run over the period 1950-2050, with two tracking algorithms applied uniformly across the models. There are overall improvements in tropical cyclone frequency, spatial distribution, and intensity in models at 25 km resolution, with several of them able to represent very intense storms. Projected tropical cyclone activity by 2050 generally declines in the South Indian Ocean, while changes in other ocean basins are more uncertain and sensitive to both tracking algorithm and imposed forcings. Coupled models with smaller biases suggest a slight increase in average TC 10 m wind speeds by 2050 
650 4 |a Journal Article 
650 4 |a CMIP6 
650 4 |a future change 
650 4 |a high resolution 
650 4 |a model bias 
650 4 |a tracking algorithms 
650 4 |a tropical cyclones 
700 1 |a Camp, Joanne  |e verfasserin  |4 aut 
700 1 |a Seddon, Jon  |e verfasserin  |4 aut 
700 1 |a Vidale, Pier Luigi  |e verfasserin  |4 aut 
700 1 |a Hodges, Kevin  |e verfasserin  |4 aut 
700 1 |a Vannière, Benoît  |e verfasserin  |4 aut 
700 1 |a Mecking, Jenny  |e verfasserin  |4 aut 
700 1 |a Haarsma, Rein  |e verfasserin  |4 aut 
700 1 |a Bellucci, Alessio  |e verfasserin  |4 aut 
700 1 |a Scoccimarro, Enrico  |e verfasserin  |4 aut 
700 1 |a Caron, Louis-Philippe  |e verfasserin  |4 aut 
700 1 |a Chauvin, Fabrice  |e verfasserin  |4 aut 
700 1 |a Terray, Laurent  |e verfasserin  |4 aut 
700 1 |a Valcke, Sophie  |e verfasserin  |4 aut 
700 1 |a Moine, Marie-Pierre  |e verfasserin  |4 aut 
700 1 |a Putrasahan, Dian  |e verfasserin  |4 aut 
700 1 |a Roberts, Christopher D  |e verfasserin  |4 aut 
700 1 |a Senan, Retish  |e verfasserin  |4 aut 
700 1 |a Zarzycki, Colin  |e verfasserin  |4 aut 
700 1 |a Ullrich, Paul  |e verfasserin  |4 aut 
700 1 |a Yamada, Yohei  |e verfasserin  |4 aut 
700 1 |a Mizuta, Ryo  |e verfasserin  |4 aut 
700 1 |a Kodama, Chihiro  |e verfasserin  |4 aut 
700 1 |a Fu, Dan  |e verfasserin  |4 aut 
700 1 |a Zhang, Qiuying  |e verfasserin  |4 aut 
700 1 |a Danabasoglu, Gokhan  |e verfasserin  |4 aut 
700 1 |a Rosenbloom, Nan  |e verfasserin  |4 aut 
700 1 |a Wang, Hong  |e verfasserin  |4 aut 
700 1 |a Wu, Lixin  |e verfasserin  |4 aut 
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