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|a 10.1002/2016gl070445
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|a eng
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| 100 |
1 |
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|a Coats, Sloan
|e verfasserin
|4 aut
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| 245 |
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|a The challenge of accurately quantifying future megadrought risk in the American Southwest
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|c 2016
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|a Text
|b txt
|2 rdacontent
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|a ƒaComputermedien
|b c
|2 rdamedia
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|a ƒa Online-Ressource
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|a Date Revised 10.01.2021
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|a published: Print-Electronic
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|a Citation Status PubMed-not-MEDLINE
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|a American Southwest (ASW) megadroughts represent decadal-scale periods of dry conditions, the near-term risks of which arise from natural low-frequency hydroclimate variability and anthropogenic forcing. A large single-climate-model ensemble indicates anthropogenic forcing increases near-term ASW megadrought risk by a factor of 100, however, accurate risk assessment remains a challenge. At the global-scale we find that anthropogenic forcing may alter the variability driving megadroughts over 55% of land-areas, undermining accurate assessments of their risk. For the remaining areas, current ensembles are too small to characterize megadroughts' driving variability. For example, constraining uncertainty in near-term ASW megadrought risk to 5 percentage points with high confidence requires 287 simulations. Such ensemble sizes are beyond current computational and storage resources and these limitations suggest that constraining errors in near-term megadrought risk projections with high confidence-even in places where underlying variability is stationary-is not currently possible
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|a Journal Article
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|a Mankin, Justin S
|e verfasserin
|4 aut
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| 773 |
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|i Enthalten in
|t Geophysical research letters
|d 1984
|g Volume 43(2016), Iss 17 vom: 16. Sept., Seite 9225-9233
|w (DE-627)NLM098182501
|x 0094-8276
|7 nnns
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| 773 |
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|g volume:Volume 43
|g year:2016
|g number:Iss 17
|g day:16
|g month:09
|g pages:9225-9233
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|u http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/2016gl070445
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|d Volume 43
|j 2016
|e Iss 17
|b 16
|c 09
|h 9225-9233
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