Rapid assessment of management options for promoting stock rebuilding in data-poor species under climate change

Published 2019. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

Bibliographische Detailangaben
Veröffentlicht in:Conservation biology : the journal of the Society for Conservation Biology. - 1989. - 34(2020), 3 vom: 03. Juni, Seite 611-621
1. Verfasser: Reum, Jonathan C P (VerfasserIn)
Weitere Verfasser: McDonald, P Sean, Long, W Christopher, Holsman, Kirstin K, Divine, Lauren, Armstrong, David, Armstrong, Jan
Format: Online-Aufsatz
Sprache:English
Veröffentlicht: 2020
Zugriff auf das übergeordnete Werk:Conservation biology : the journal of the Society for Conservation Biology
Schlagworte:Journal Article Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't Paralithodes platypus acidificación oceánica análisis de ciclos conceptual model loop analysis modelo conceptual modelos cualitativos de redes ocean acidification mehr... qualitative network models recuperación de especies species recovery 回路分析 定性网络模型 概念模型 海洋酸化 物种恢复 蓝帝王蟹 (Paralithodes platypus)
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100 1 |a Reum, Jonathan C P  |e verfasserin  |4 aut 
245 1 0 |a Rapid assessment of management options for promoting stock rebuilding in data-poor species under climate change 
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500 |a Date Completed 26.10.2020 
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520 |a Published 2019. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA. 
520 |a The development of species recovery plans requires considering likely outcomes of different management interventions, but the complicating effects of climate change are rarely evaluated. We examined how qualitative network models (QNMs) can be deployed to support decision making when data, time, and funding limitations restrict use of more demanding quantitative methods. We used QNMs to evaluate management interventions intended to promote the rebuilding of a collapsed stock of blue king crab (Paralithodes platypus) (BKC) around the Pribilof Islands (eastern Bering Sea) to determine how their potential efficacy may change under climate change. Based on stakeholder input and a literature review, we constructed a QNM that described the life cycle of BKC, key ecological interactions, potential climate-change impacts, relative interaction strengths, and uncertainty in terms of interaction strengths and link presence. We performed sensitivity analyses to identify key sources of prediction uncertainty. Under a scenario of no climate change, predicted increases in BKC were reliable only when stock enhancement was implemented in a BKC hatchery-program scenario. However, when climate change was accounted for, the intervention could not counteract its adverse impacts, which had an overall negative effect on BKC. The remaining management scenarios related to changes in fishing effort on BKC predators. For those scenarios, BKC outcomes were unreliable, but climate change further decreased the probability of observing recovery. Including information on relative interaction strengths increased the likelihood of predicting positive outcomes for BKC approximately 5-50% under the management scenarios. The largest gains in prediction precision will be made by reducing uncertainty associated with ecological interactions between adult BKC and red king crab (Paralithodes camtschaticus). Qualitative network models are useful options when data are limited, but they remain underutilized in conservation 
650 4 |a Journal Article 
650 4 |a Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't 
650 4 |a Paralithodes platypus 
650 4 |a acidificación oceánica 
650 4 |a análisis de ciclos 
650 4 |a conceptual model 
650 4 |a loop analysis 
650 4 |a modelo conceptual 
650 4 |a modelos cualitativos de redes 
650 4 |a ocean acidification 
650 4 |a qualitative network models 
650 4 |a recuperación de especies 
650 4 |a species recovery 
650 4 |a 回路分析 
650 4 |a 定性网络模型 
650 4 |a 概念模型 
650 4 |a 海洋酸化 
650 4 |a 物种恢复 
650 4 |a 蓝帝王蟹 (Paralithodes platypus) 
700 1 |a McDonald, P Sean  |e verfasserin  |4 aut 
700 1 |a Long, W Christopher  |e verfasserin  |4 aut 
700 1 |a Holsman, Kirstin K  |e verfasserin  |4 aut 
700 1 |a Divine, Lauren  |e verfasserin  |4 aut 
700 1 |a Armstrong, David  |e verfasserin  |4 aut 
700 1 |a Armstrong, Jan  |e verfasserin  |4 aut 
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773 1 8 |g volume:34  |g year:2020  |g number:3  |g day:03  |g month:06  |g pages:611-621 
856 4 0 |u http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/cobi.13427  |3 Volltext 
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