Global wheat production with 1.5 and 2.0°C above pre-industrial warming

Global wheat production with 1.5 and 2.0°C above pre-industrial warming

© 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Bibliographische Detailangaben
Veröffentlicht in:Global change biology. - 1999. - 25(2019), 4 vom: 15. Apr., Seite 1428-1444
1. Verfasser: Liu, Bing (VerfasserIn)
Weitere Verfasser: Martre, Pierre, Ewert, Frank, Porter, John R, Challinor, Andy J, Müller, Christoph, Ruane, Alex C, Waha, Katharina, Thorburn, Peter J, Aggarwal, Pramod K, Ahmed, Mukhtar, Balkovič, Juraj, Basso, Bruno, Biernath, Christian, Bindi, Marco, Cammarano, Davide, De Sanctis, Giacomo, Dumont, Benjamin, Espadafor, Mónica, Eyshi Rezaei, Ehsan, Ferrise, Roberto, Garcia-Vila, Margarita, Gayler, Sebastian, Gao, Yujing, Horan, Heidi, Hoogenboom, Gerrit, Izaurralde, Roberto C, Jones, Curtis D, Kassie, Belay T, Kersebaum, Kurt C, Klein, Christian, Koehler, Ann-Kristin, Maiorano, Andrea, Minoli, Sara, Montesino San Martin, Manuel, Naresh Kumar, Soora, Nendel, Claas, O'Leary, Garry J, Palosuo, Taru, Priesack, Eckart, Ripoche, Dominique, Rötter, Reimund P, Semenov, Mikhail A, Stöckle, Claudio, Streck, Thilo, Supit, Iwan, Tao, Fulu, Van der Velde, Marijn, Wallach, Daniel, Wang, Enli, Webber, Heidi, Wolf, Joost, Xiao, Liujun, Zhang, Zhao, Zhao, Zhigan, Zhu, Yan, Asseng, Senthold
Format: Online-Aufsatz
Sprache:English
Veröffentlicht: 2019
Zugriff auf das übergeordnete Werk:Global change biology
Schlagworte:Journal Article 1.5°C warming climate change extreme low yields food security model ensemble wheat production
LEADER 01000naa a22002652 4500
001 NLM29166833X
003 DE-627
005 20231225071400.0
007 cr uuu---uuuuu
008 231225s2019 xx |||||o 00| ||eng c
024 7 |a 10.1111/gcb.14542  |2 doi 
028 5 2 |a pubmed24n0972.xml 
035 |a (DE-627)NLM29166833X 
035 |a (NLM)30536680 
040 |a DE-627  |b ger  |c DE-627  |e rakwb 
041 |a eng 
100 1 |a Liu, Bing  |e verfasserin  |4 aut 
245 1 0 |a Global wheat production with 1.5 and 2.0°C above pre-industrial warming 
264 1 |c 2019 
336 |a Text  |b txt  |2 rdacontent 
337 |a ƒaComputermedien  |b c  |2 rdamedia 
338 |a ƒa Online-Ressource  |b cr  |2 rdacarrier 
500 |a Date Revised 01.02.2023 
500 |a published: Print-Electronic 
500 |a Citation Status PubMed-not-MEDLINE 
520 |a © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd. 
520 |a Efforts to limit global warming to below 2°C in relation to the pre-industrial level are under way, in accordance with the 2015 Paris Agreement. However, most impact research on agriculture to date has focused on impacts of warming >2°C on mean crop yields, and many previous studies did not focus sufficiently on extreme events and yield interannual variability. Here, with the latest climate scenarios from the Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts (HAPPI) project, we evaluated the impacts of the 2015 Paris Agreement range of global warming (1.5 and 2.0°C warming above the pre-industrial period) on global wheat production and local yield variability. A multi-crop and multi-climate model ensemble over a global network of sites developed by the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) for Wheat was used to represent major rainfed and irrigated wheat cropping systems. Results show that projected global wheat production will change by -2.3% to 7.0% under the 1.5°C scenario and -2.4% to 10.5% under the 2.0°C scenario, compared to a baseline of 1980-2010, when considering changes in local temperature, rainfall, and global atmospheric CO2 concentration, but no changes in management or wheat cultivars. The projected impact on wheat production varies spatially; a larger increase is projected for temperate high rainfall regions than for moderate hot low rainfall and irrigated regions. Grain yields in warmer regions are more likely to be reduced than in cooler regions. Despite mostly positive impacts on global average grain yields, the frequency of extremely low yields (bottom 5 percentile of baseline distribution) and yield inter-annual variability will increase under both warming scenarios for some of the hot growing locations, including locations from the second largest global wheat producer-India, which supplies more than 14% of global wheat. The projected global impact of warming <2°C on wheat production is therefore not evenly distributed and will affect regional food security across the globe as well as food prices and trade 
650 4 |a Journal Article 
650 4 |a 1.5°C warming 
650 4 |a climate change 
650 4 |a extreme low yields 
650 4 |a food security 
650 4 |a model ensemble 
650 4 |a wheat production 
700 1 |a Martre, Pierre  |e verfasserin  |4 aut 
700 1 |a Ewert, Frank  |e verfasserin  |4 aut 
700 1 |a Porter, John R  |e verfasserin  |4 aut 
700 1 |a Challinor, Andy J  |e verfasserin  |4 aut 
700 1 |a Müller, Christoph  |e verfasserin  |4 aut 
700 1 |a Ruane, Alex C  |e verfasserin  |4 aut 
700 1 |a Waha, Katharina  |e verfasserin  |4 aut 
700 1 |a Thorburn, Peter J  |e verfasserin  |4 aut 
700 1 |a Aggarwal, Pramod K  |e verfasserin  |4 aut 
700 1 |a Ahmed, Mukhtar  |e verfasserin  |4 aut 
700 1 |a Balkovič, Juraj  |e verfasserin  |4 aut 
700 1 |a Basso, Bruno  |e verfasserin  |4 aut 
700 1 |a Biernath, Christian  |e verfasserin  |4 aut 
700 1 |a Bindi, Marco  |e verfasserin  |4 aut 
700 1 |a Cammarano, Davide  |e verfasserin  |4 aut 
700 1 |a De Sanctis, Giacomo  |e verfasserin  |4 aut 
700 1 |a Dumont, Benjamin  |e verfasserin  |4 aut 
700 1 |a Espadafor, Mónica  |e verfasserin  |4 aut 
700 1 |a Eyshi Rezaei, Ehsan  |e verfasserin  |4 aut 
700 1 |a Ferrise, Roberto  |e verfasserin  |4 aut 
700 1 |a Garcia-Vila, Margarita  |e verfasserin  |4 aut 
700 1 |a Gayler, Sebastian  |e verfasserin  |4 aut 
700 1 |a Gao, Yujing  |e verfasserin  |4 aut 
700 1 |a Horan, Heidi  |e verfasserin  |4 aut 
700 1 |a Hoogenboom, Gerrit  |e verfasserin  |4 aut 
700 1 |a Izaurralde, Roberto C  |e verfasserin  |4 aut 
700 1 |a Jones, Curtis D  |e verfasserin  |4 aut 
700 1 |a Kassie, Belay T  |e verfasserin  |4 aut 
700 1 |a Kersebaum, Kurt C  |e verfasserin  |4 aut 
700 1 |a Klein, Christian  |e verfasserin  |4 aut 
700 1 |a Koehler, Ann-Kristin  |e verfasserin  |4 aut 
700 1 |a Maiorano, Andrea  |e verfasserin  |4 aut 
700 1 |a Minoli, Sara  |e verfasserin  |4 aut 
700 1 |a Montesino San Martin, Manuel  |e verfasserin  |4 aut 
700 1 |a Naresh Kumar, Soora  |e verfasserin  |4 aut 
700 1 |a Nendel, Claas  |e verfasserin  |4 aut 
700 1 |a O'Leary, Garry J  |e verfasserin  |4 aut 
700 1 |a Palosuo, Taru  |e verfasserin  |4 aut 
700 1 |a Priesack, Eckart  |e verfasserin  |4 aut 
700 1 |a Ripoche, Dominique  |e verfasserin  |4 aut 
700 1 |a Rötter, Reimund P  |e verfasserin  |4 aut 
700 1 |a Semenov, Mikhail A  |e verfasserin  |4 aut 
700 1 |a Stöckle, Claudio  |e verfasserin  |4 aut 
700 1 |a Streck, Thilo  |e verfasserin  |4 aut 
700 1 |a Supit, Iwan  |e verfasserin  |4 aut 
700 1 |a Tao, Fulu  |e verfasserin  |4 aut 
700 1 |a Van der Velde, Marijn  |e verfasserin  |4 aut 
700 1 |a Wallach, Daniel  |e verfasserin  |4 aut 
700 1 |a Wang, Enli  |e verfasserin  |4 aut 
700 1 |a Webber, Heidi  |e verfasserin  |4 aut 
700 1 |a Wolf, Joost  |e verfasserin  |4 aut 
700 1 |a Xiao, Liujun  |e verfasserin  |4 aut 
700 1 |a Zhang, Zhao  |e verfasserin  |4 aut 
700 1 |a Zhao, Zhigan  |e verfasserin  |4 aut 
700 1 |a Zhu, Yan  |e verfasserin  |4 aut 
700 1 |a Asseng, Senthold  |e verfasserin  |4 aut 
773 0 8 |i Enthalten in  |t Global change biology  |d 1999  |g 25(2019), 4 vom: 15. Apr., Seite 1428-1444  |w (DE-627)NLM098239996  |x 1365-2486  |7 nnns 
773 1 8 |g volume:25  |g year:2019  |g number:4  |g day:15  |g month:04  |g pages:1428-1444 
856 4 0 |u http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/gcb.14542  |3 Volltext 
912 |a GBV_USEFLAG_A 
912 |a SYSFLAG_A 
912 |a GBV_NLM 
912 |a GBV_ILN_350 
951 |a AR 
952 |d 25  |j 2019  |e 4  |b 15  |c 04  |h 1428-1444