Detecting deterrence from patrol data

© 2018 The Authors. Conservation Biology published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Society for Conservation Biology.

Bibliographische Detailangaben
Veröffentlicht in:Conservation biology : the journal of the Society for Conservation Biology. - 1999. - 33(2019), 3 vom: 05. Juni, Seite 665-675
1. Verfasser: Dobson, Andrew D M (VerfasserIn)
Weitere Verfasser: Milner-Gulland, E J, Beale, Colin M, Ibbett, Harriet, Keane, Aidan
Format: Online-Aufsatz
Sprache:English
Veröffentlicht: 2019
Zugriff auf das übergeordnete Werk:Conservation biology : the journal of the Society for Conservation Biology
Schlagworte:Journal Article Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't aplicación de la ley bushmeat carne de caza carne silvestre caza furtiva conservación conservation law enforcement mehr... poaching protected areas wild meat áreas protegidas 丛林肉 保护 保护地 偷猎 法律实施 野味
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520 |a The threat posed to protected areas by the illegal killing of wildlife is countered principally by ranger patrols that aim to detect and deter potential offenders. Deterring poaching is a fundamental conservation objective, but its achievement is difficult to identify, especially when the prime source of information comes in the form of the patrols' own records, which inevitably contain biases. The most common metric of deterrence is a plot of illegal activities detected per unit of patrol effort (CPUE) against patrol effort (CPUE-E). We devised a simple, mechanistic model of law breaking and law enforcement in which we simulated deterrence alongside exogenous changes in the frequency of offences under different temporal patterns of enforcement effort. The CPUE-E plots were not reliable indicators of deterrence. However, plots of change in CPUE over change in effort (ΔCPUE-ΔE) reliably identified deterrence, regardless of the temporal distribution of effort or any exogenous change in illegal activity levels as long as the time lag between patrol effort and subsequent behavioral change among offenders was approximately known. The ΔCPUE-ΔE plots offered a robust, simple metric for monitoring patrol effectiveness; were no more conceptually complicated than the basic CPUE-E plots; and required no specialist knowledge or software to produce. Our findings demonstrate the need to account for temporal autocorrelation in patrol data and to consider appropriate (and poaching-activity-specific) intervals for aggregation. They also reveal important gaps in understanding of deterrence in this context, especially the mechanisms by which it occurs. In practical applications, we recommend the use of ΔCPUE-ΔE plots in preference to other basic metrics and advise that deterrence should be suspected only if there is a clear negative slope. Distinct types of illegal activity should not be grouped together for analysis, especially if the signs of their occurrence have different persistence times in the environment 
650 4 |a Journal Article 
650 4 |a Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't 
650 4 |a aplicación de la ley 
650 4 |a bushmeat 
650 4 |a carne de caza 
650 4 |a carne silvestre 
650 4 |a caza furtiva 
650 4 |a conservación 
650 4 |a conservation 
650 4 |a law enforcement 
650 4 |a poaching 
650 4 |a protected areas 
650 4 |a wild meat 
650 4 |a áreas protegidas 
650 4 |a 丛林肉 
650 4 |a 保护 
650 4 |a 保护地 
650 4 |a 偷猎 
650 4 |a 法律实施 
650 4 |a 野味 
700 1 |a Milner-Gulland, E J  |e verfasserin  |4 aut 
700 1 |a Beale, Colin M  |e verfasserin  |4 aut 
700 1 |a Ibbett, Harriet  |e verfasserin  |4 aut 
700 1 |a Keane, Aidan  |e verfasserin  |4 aut 
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773 1 8 |g volume:33  |g year:2019  |g number:3  |g day:05  |g month:06  |g pages:665-675 
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