Seed origin and warming constrain lodgepole pine recruitment, slowing the pace of population range shifts

© 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Bibliographische Detailangaben
Veröffentlicht in:Global change biology. - 1999. - 24(2018), 1 vom: 25. Jan., Seite 197-211
1. Verfasser: Conlisk, Erin (VerfasserIn)
Weitere Verfasser: Castanha, Cristina, Germino, Matthew J, Veblen, Thomas T, Smith, Jeremy M, Moyes, Andrew B, Kueppers, Lara M
Format: Online-Aufsatz
Sprache:English
Veröffentlicht: 2018
Zugriff auf das übergeordnete Werk:Global change biology
Schlagworte:Journal Article Research Support, U.S. Gov't, Non-P.H.S. Pinus contorta climate change demographic model range shift seed provenance time lag treeline Water 059QF0KO0R
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500 |a Citation Status MEDLINE 
520 |a © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd. 
520 |a Understanding how climate warming will affect the demographic rates of different ecotypes is critical to predicting shifts in species distributions. Here, we present results from a common garden, climate change experiment in which we measured seedling recruitment of lodgepole pine, a widespread North American conifer that is also planted globally. Seeds from a low-elevation provenance had more than three-fold greater recruitment to their third year than seeds from a high-elevation provenance across sites within and above its native elevation range and across climate manipulations. Heating halved recruitment to the third year of both low- and high-elevation seed sources across the elevation gradient, while watering more than doubled recruitment, alleviating some of the negative effects of heating. Demographic models based on recruitment data from the climate manipulations and long-term observations of adult populations revealed that heating could effectively halt modeled upslope range expansion except when combined with watering. Simulating fire and rapid postfire forest recovery at lower elevations accelerated lodgepole pine expansion into the alpine, but did not alter final abundance rankings among climate scenarios. Regardless of climate scenario, greater recruitment of low-elevation seeds compensated for longer dispersal distances to treeline, assuming colonization was allowed to proceed over multiple centuries. Our results show that ecotypes from lower elevations within a species' range could enhance recruitment and facilitate upslope range shifts with climate change 
650 4 |a Journal Article 
650 4 |a Research Support, U.S. Gov't, Non-P.H.S. 
650 4 |a Pinus contorta 
650 4 |a climate change 
650 4 |a demographic model 
650 4 |a range shift 
650 4 |a seed provenance 
650 4 |a time lag 
650 4 |a treeline 
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700 1 |a Castanha, Cristina  |e verfasserin  |4 aut 
700 1 |a Germino, Matthew J  |e verfasserin  |4 aut 
700 1 |a Veblen, Thomas T  |e verfasserin  |4 aut 
700 1 |a Smith, Jeremy M  |e verfasserin  |4 aut 
700 1 |a Moyes, Andrew B  |e verfasserin  |4 aut 
700 1 |a Kueppers, Lara M  |e verfasserin  |4 aut 
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773 1 8 |g volume:24  |g year:2018  |g number:1  |g day:25  |g month:01  |g pages:197-211 
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