Performance of IUCN proxies for generation length

Published 2017. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

Bibliographische Detailangaben
Veröffentlicht in:Conservation biology : the journal of the Society for Conservation Biology. - 1999. - 31(2017), 4 vom: 10. Aug., Seite 883-893
1. Verfasser: Fung, Han Chi (VerfasserIn)
Weitere Verfasser: Waples, Robin S
Format: Online-Aufsatz
Sprache:English
Veröffentlicht: 2017
Zugriff auf das übergeordnete Werk:Conservation biology : the journal of the Society for Conservation Biology
Schlagworte:Journal Article age-specific fecundity age-specific survival conservación conservation endangered species especies en peligro evaluación de riesgo fecundidad específica de edad risk assessment supervivencia específica de edad
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520 |a Published 2017. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA. 
520 |a One of the criteria used by the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) to assess threat status is the rate of decline in abundance over 3 generations or 10 years, whichever is longer. The traditional method for calculating generation length (T) uses age-specific survival and fecundity, but these data are rarely available. Consequently, proxies that require less information are often used, which introduces potential biases. The IUCN recommends 2 proxies based on adult mortality rate, T̂d = α + 1/d, and reproductive life span, T̂z = α + z* RL, where α is age at first reproduction, d is adult mortality rate, RL is reproductive life span, and z is a coefficient derived from data for comparable species. We used published life tables for 78 animal and plant populations to evaluate precision and bias of these proxies by comparing T̂d and T̂z with true generation length. Mean error rates in estimating T were 31% for T̂d and 20% for T̂z, but error rates for T̂d were 16% when we subtracted 1 year ( T̂d( adj )=T̂d-1 ), as suggested by theory; T̂d( adj ) also provided largely unbiased estimates regardless of the true generation length. Performance of T̂z depends on compilation of detailed data for comparable species, but our results suggest taxonomy is not a reliable indicator of comparability. All 3 proxies depend heavily on a reliable estimate of age at first reproduction, as we illustrated with 2 test species. The relatively large mean errors for all proxies emphasized the importance of collecting the detailed life-history information necessary to calculate true generation length. Unfortunately, publication of such data is less common than it was decades ago. We identified generic patterns of age-specific change in vital rates that can be used to predict expected patterns of bias from applying T̂d( adj ) 
650 4 |a Journal Article 
650 4 |a age-specific fecundity 
650 4 |a age-specific survival 
650 4 |a conservación 
650 4 |a conservation 
650 4 |a endangered species 
650 4 |a especies en peligro 
650 4 |a evaluación de riesgo 
650 4 |a fecundidad específica de edad 
650 4 |a risk assessment 
650 4 |a supervivencia específica de edad 
700 1 |a Waples, Robin S  |e verfasserin  |4 aut 
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773 1 8 |g volume:31  |g year:2017  |g number:4  |g day:10  |g month:08  |g pages:883-893 
856 4 0 |u http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/cobi.12901  |3 Volltext 
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