Estimating the ability of plants to plastically track temperature-mediated shifts in the spring phenological optimum
© 2017 The Authors Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
| Veröffentlicht in: | Global change biology. - 1999. - 23(2017), 8 vom: 13. Aug., Seite 3321-3334 |
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| Format: | Online-Aufsatz |
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
2017
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| Zugriff auf das übergeordnete Werk: | Global change biology |
| Schlagworte: | Journal Article chilling citizen science forcing local adaptation phenology photoperiod plasticity space for time |
| Zusammenfassung: | © 2017 The Authors Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. One consequence of rising spring temperatures is that the optimum timing of key life-history events may advance. Where this is the case, a population's fate may depend on the degree to which it is able to track a change in the optimum timing either via plasticity or via adaptation. Estimating the effect that temperature change will have on optimum timing using standard approaches is logistically challenging, with the result that very few estimates of this important parameter exist. Here we adopt an alternative statistical method that substitutes space for time to estimate the temperature sensitivity of the optimum timing of 22 plant species based on >200 000 spatiotemporal phenological observations from across the United Kingdom. We find that first leafing and flowering dates are sensitive to forcing (spring) temperatures, with optimum timing advancing by an average of 3 days °C-1 and plastic responses to forcing between -3 and -8 days °C-1 . Chilling (autumn/winter) temperatures and photoperiod tend to be important cues for species with early and late phenology, respectively. For most species, we find that plasticity is adaptive, and for seven species, plasticity is sufficient to track geographic variation in the optimum phenology. For four species, we find that plasticity is significantly steeper than the optimum slope that we estimate between forcing temperature and phenology, and we examine possible explanations for this countergradient pattern, including local adaptation |
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| Beschreibung: | Date Completed 23.10.2017 Date Revised 02.12.2018 published: Print-Electronic Citation Status MEDLINE |
| ISSN: | 1365-2486 |
| DOI: | 10.1111/gcb.13624 |