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|a eng
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|a Shen, L
|e verfasserin
|4 aut
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|a Impact of increasing heat waves on U.S. ozone episodes in the 2050s
|b Results from a multimodel analysis using extreme value theory
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|c 2016
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|a Text
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|a ohne Hilfsmittel zu benutzen
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|a Date Revised 25.03.2024
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|a published: Print-Electronic
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|a Citation Status PubMed-not-MEDLINE
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|a We develop a statistical model using extreme value theory to estimate the 2000-2050 changes in ozone episodes across the United States. We model the relationships between daily maximum temperature (Tmax) and maximum daily 8-hour average (MDA8) ozone in May-September over 2003-2012 using a Point Process (PP) model. At ~20% of the sites, a marked decrease in the ozone-temperature slope occurs at high temperatures, defined as ozone suppression. The PP model sometimes fails to capture ozone-Tmax relationships, and so we refit the ozone-Tmax slope using logistic regression and a Generalized Pareto Distribution model. We then apply the resulting hybrid-EVT model to projections of Tmax from an ensemble of downscaled climate models. Assuming constant anthropogenic emissions at the present level, we find an average increase of 2.3 days a-1 in ozone episodes (> 75 ppbv) across the United States by the 2050s, with a change of +3-9 days a-1 at many sites
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|a Journal Article
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|a Mickley, L J
|e verfasserin
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|a Gilleland, E
|e verfasserin
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|i Enthalten in
|t Geophysical research letters
|d 1984
|g 43(2016), 8 vom: 28. Apr., Seite 4017-4025
|w (DE-627)NLM098182501
|x 0094-8276
|7 nnns
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|g volume:43
|g year:2016
|g number:8
|g day:28
|g month:04
|g pages:4017-4025
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|d 43
|j 2016
|e 8
|b 28
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|h 4017-4025
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