Modelling marine community responses to climate-driven species redistribution to guide monitoring and adaptive ecosystem-based management

© 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Bibliographische Detailangaben
Veröffentlicht in:Global change biology. - 1999. - 22(2016), 7 vom: 10. Juli, Seite 2462-74
1. Verfasser: Marzloff, Martin Pierre (VerfasserIn)
Weitere Verfasser: Melbourne-Thomas, Jessica, Hamon, Katell G, Hoshino, Eriko, Jennings, Sarah, van Putten, Ingrid E, Pecl, Gretta T
Format: Online-Aufsatz
Sprache:English
Veröffentlicht: 2016
Zugriff auf das übergeordnete Werk:Global change biology
Schlagworte:Journal Article climate change management support tool qualitative modelling of system feedback qualitative network models range shifts temperate reef trophic cascade tropicalisation
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500 |a Date Completed 02.08.2017 
500 |a Date Revised 02.12.2018 
500 |a published: Print-Electronic 
500 |a ErratumIn: Glob Chang Biol. 2017 Mar;23 (3):1360. - PMID 28211250 
500 |a Citation Status MEDLINE 
520 |a © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd. 
520 |a As a consequence of global climate-driven changes, marine ecosystems are experiencing polewards redistributions of species - or range shifts - across taxa and throughout latitudes worldwide. Research on these range shifts largely focuses on understanding and predicting changes in the distribution of individual species. The ecological effects of marine range shifts on ecosystem structure and functioning, as well as human coastal communities, can be large, yet remain difficult to anticipate and manage. Here, we use qualitative modelling of system feedback to understand the cumulative impacts of multiple species shifts in south-eastern Australia, a global hotspot for ocean warming. We identify range-shifting species that can induce trophic cascades and affect ecosystem dynamics and productivity, and evaluate the potential effectiveness of alternative management interventions to mitigate these impacts. Our results suggest that the negative ecological impacts of multiple simultaneous range shifts generally add up. Thus, implementing whole-of-ecosystem management strategies and regular monitoring of range-shifting species of ecological concern are necessary to effectively intervene against undesirable consequences of marine range shifts at the regional scale. Our study illustrates how modelling system feedback with only limited qualitative information about ecosystem structure and range-shifting species can predict ecological consequences of multiple co-occurring range shifts, guide ecosystem-based adaptation to climate change and help prioritise future research and monitoring 
650 4 |a Journal Article 
650 4 |a climate change 
650 4 |a management support tool 
650 4 |a qualitative modelling of system feedback 
650 4 |a qualitative network models 
650 4 |a range shifts 
650 4 |a temperate reef 
650 4 |a trophic cascade 
650 4 |a tropicalisation 
700 1 |a Melbourne-Thomas, Jessica  |e verfasserin  |4 aut 
700 1 |a Hamon, Katell G  |e verfasserin  |4 aut 
700 1 |a Hoshino, Eriko  |e verfasserin  |4 aut 
700 1 |a Jennings, Sarah  |e verfasserin  |4 aut 
700 1 |a van Putten, Ingrid E  |e verfasserin  |4 aut 
700 1 |a Pecl, Gretta T  |e verfasserin  |4 aut 
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773 1 8 |g volume:22  |g year:2016  |g number:7  |g day:10  |g month:07  |g pages:2462-74 
856 4 0 |u http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13285  |3 Volltext 
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