Quantifying population declines based on presence-only records for red-list assessments

© 2016 Society for Conservation Biology.

Bibliographische Detailangaben
Veröffentlicht in:Conservation biology : the journal of the Society for Conservation Biology. - 1999. - 30(2016), 5 vom: 10. Okt., Seite 1112-21
1. Verfasser: Cruickshank, Sam S (VerfasserIn)
Weitere Verfasser: Ozgul, Arpat, Zumbach, Silvia, Schmidt, Benedikt R
Format: Online-Aufsatz
Sprache:English
Veröffentlicht: 2016
Zugriff auf das übergeordnete Werk:Conservation biology : the journal of the Society for Conservation Biology
Schlagworte:Journal Article amphibian anfibio conservación conservation datos de presencia detection probability extinction risk management manejo mehr... monitoreo monitoring occupancy ocupación presence-only data probabilidad de detección riesgo de extinción tendencia trend
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245 1 0 |a Quantifying population declines based on presence-only records for red-list assessments 
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500 |a Citation Status MEDLINE 
520 |a © 2016 Society for Conservation Biology. 
520 |a Accurate trend estimates are necessary for understanding which species are declining and which are most in need of conservation action. Imperfect species detection may result in unreliable trend estimates because this may lead to the overestimation of declines. Because many management decisions are based on population trend estimates, such biases could have severe consequences for conservation policy. We used an occupancy-modeling framework to estimate detectability and calculate nationwide population trends for 14 Swiss amphibian species both accounting for and ignoring imperfect detection. Through the application of International Union for Conservation of Nature Red List criteria to the different trend estimates, we assessed whether ignoring imperfect detection could affect conservation policy. Imperfect detection occurred for all species and detection varied substantially among species, which led to the overestimation of population declines when detectability was ignored. Consequently, accounting for imperfect detection lowered the red-list risk category for 5 of the 14 species assessed. We demonstrate that failing to consider species detectability can have serious consequences for species management and that occupancy modeling provides a flexible framework to account for observation bias and improve assessments of conservation status. A problem inherent to most historical records is that they contain presence-only data from which only relative declines can be estimated. A move toward the routine recording of nonobservation and absence data is essential if conservation practitioners are to move beyond this toward accurate population trend estimation 
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650 4 |a detection probability 
650 4 |a extinction risk 
650 4 |a management 
650 4 |a manejo 
650 4 |a monitoreo 
650 4 |a monitoring 
650 4 |a occupancy 
650 4 |a ocupación 
650 4 |a presence-only data 
650 4 |a probabilidad de detección 
650 4 |a riesgo de extinción 
650 4 |a tendencia 
650 4 |a trend 
700 1 |a Ozgul, Arpat  |e verfasserin  |4 aut 
700 1 |a Zumbach, Silvia  |e verfasserin  |4 aut 
700 1 |a Schmidt, Benedikt R  |e verfasserin  |4 aut 
773 0 8 |i Enthalten in  |t Conservation biology : the journal of the Society for Conservation Biology  |d 1999  |g 30(2016), 5 vom: 10. Okt., Seite 1112-21  |w (DE-627)NLM098176803  |x 1523-1739  |7 nnns 
773 1 8 |g volume:30  |g year:2016  |g number:5  |g day:10  |g month:10  |g pages:1112-21 
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