Velocity of climate change algorithms for guiding conservation and management
© 2014 The Authors. Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
| Veröffentlicht in: | Global change biology. - 1999. - 21(2015), 2 vom: 05. Feb., Seite 997-1004 |
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| 1. Verfasser: | |
| Weitere Verfasser: | , , , |
| Format: | Online-Aufsatz |
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
2015
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| Zugriff auf das übergeordnete Werk: | Global change biology |
| Schlagworte: | Journal Article Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't assisted migration climate change adaptation climate change vulnerability conservation no-analogue climates |
| Zusammenfassung: | © 2014 The Authors. Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. The velocity of climate change is an elegant analytical concept that can be used to evaluate the exposure of organisms to climate change. In essence, one divides the rate of climate change by the rate of spatial climate variability to obtain a speed at which species must migrate over the surface of the earth to maintain constant climate conditions. However, to apply the algorithm for conservation and management purposes, additional information is needed to improve realism at local scales. For example, destination information is needed to ensure that vectors describing speed and direction of required migration do not point toward a climatic cul-de-sac by pointing beyond mountain tops. Here, we present an analytical approach that conforms to standard velocity algorithms if climate equivalents are nearby. Otherwise, the algorithm extends the search for climate refugia, which can be expanded to search for multivariate climate matches. With source and destination information available, forward and backward velocities can be calculated allowing useful inferences about conservation of species (present-to-future velocities) and management of species populations (future-to-present velocities) |
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| Beschreibung: | Date Completed 22.10.2015 Date Revised 26.01.2015 published: Print-Electronic CommentIn: Glob Chang Biol. 2015 Aug;21(8):2832-3. - PMID 25854883 Citation Status MEDLINE |
| ISSN: | 1365-2486 |
| DOI: | 10.1111/gcb.12736 |