Significance of sighting rate in inferring extinction and threat

We are now entering a time of immense environmental upheaval in which, increasingly, experts are required to provide conservation assessments. Quantitative assessment of trends in species' range and abundance is costly, requiring extensive field studies over a long period of time. Unfortunately...

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Veröffentlicht in:Conservation biology : the journal of the Society for Conservation Biology. - 1999. - 20(2006), 2 vom: 07. Apr., Seite 562-7
1. Verfasser: McInerny, Greg J (VerfasserIn)
Weitere Verfasser: Roberts, David L, Davy, Anthony J, Cribb, Phillip J
Format: Aufsatz
Sprache:English
Veröffentlicht: 2006
Zugriff auf das übergeordnete Werk:Conservation biology : the journal of the Society for Conservation Biology
Schlagworte:Journal Article
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520 |a We are now entering a time of immense environmental upheaval in which, increasingly, experts are required to provide conservation assessments. Quantitative assessment of trends in species' range and abundance is costly, requiring extensive field studies over a long period of time. Unfortunately, many species are only known through a few "chance" sightings or a handful of specimens, and therefore extinction may be even harder to ascertain. Several methods have been proposed for estimating the probability of extinction. However comparison within and between species is difficult because of variations in sighting rates. We applied a probabilistic method that incorporates sighting rate to the sighting record of Vietnamese slipper orchids (Paphiopedilum). The method generates a probability that another sighting will occur given the previous sighting rate and the time since last observation. This allows greater comparability between species discovered at different times. Its predictions were more highly correlated with the World Conservation Union criteria than previous methods. Trends in data collection and the political climate of a country, which affects access to material, are important potential sources of variation that affect sighting rates. A lack of understanding of the process by which data are generated makes inferring extinction from sighting records difficult because extinction status depends on how the sighting rate varies. However such methods allow rapid conservation prioritization of taxa that are poorly known and would otherwise go unassessed 
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700 1 |a Davy, Anthony J  |e verfasserin  |4 aut 
700 1 |a Cribb, Phillip J  |e verfasserin  |4 aut 
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