Comparison of three probability distributions and techno-economic analysis of wind energy production along the coastal belt of Pakistan

Continuous probability distributions have long been used to model the wind data. No single distribution can be declared accurate for all locations. Therefore, a comparison of different distributions before actual wind resource assessment should be carried out. Current work focuses on the application...

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Veröffentlicht in:Energy Exploration & Exploitation. - Sage Publications, Inc.. - 39(2021), 6, Seite 2191-2213
1. Verfasser: Sumair, Muhammad (VerfasserIn)
Weitere Verfasser: Aized, Tauseef, Gardezi, Syed Asad Raza, Bhutta, Muhammad Mahmood Aslam, Rehman, Syed Muhammad Sohail, Rehman, Syed Ubaid ur
Format: Online-Aufsatz
Sprache:English
Veröffentlicht: 2021
Zugriff auf das übergeordnete Werk:Energy Exploration & Exploitation
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520 |a Continuous probability distributions have long been used to model the wind data. No single distribution can be declared accurate for all locations. Therefore, a comparison of different distributions before actual wind resource assessment should be carried out. Current work focuses on the application of three probability distributions, i.e. Weibull, Rayleigh, and lognormal for wind resource estimation at six sites along the coastal belt of Pakistan. Four years’ (2015–2018) wind data measured each 60-minutes at 50m height for six locations were collected from Pakistan Meteorological Department. Comparison of these distributions was done based on coefficient of determination (R²), root mean square error, and mean absolute percentage deviation. Comparison showed that Weibull distribution is the most accurate followed by lognormal and Rayleigh, respectively. Wind power density (PD ) was evaluated and it was found that Karachi has the highest wind speed and PD as 5.82 m/s and 162.69 W/m², respectively, while Jiwani has the lowest wind speed and PD as 4.62 m/s and 76.76 W/m², respectively. Furthermore, feasibility of annual energy production (AEP) was determined using six turbines. It was found that Vestas V42 shows the worst performance while Bonus 1300/62 is the best with respect to annual energy production and Bonus 600/44 is the most economical. Finally, sensitivity analysis was carried out. 
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700 1 |a Gardezi, Syed Asad Raza  |e verfasserin  |4 aut 
700 1 |a Bhutta, Muhammad Mahmood Aslam  |e verfasserin  |4 aut 
700 1 |a Rehman, Syed Muhammad Sohail  |e verfasserin  |4 aut 
700 1 |a Rehman, Syed Ubaid ur  |e verfasserin  |4 aut 
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