Refutation in Research: How to Improve Publication Quality

I examine how incentives for refutation affect publication quality. I build a sequential model of public experimentation with two scientists, a researcher and a refuter. The researcher chooses when to publish a result confirming a hypothesis,...

Ausführliche Beschreibung

Bibliographische Detailangaben
Veröffentlicht in:	Annals of Economics and Statistics. - GENES. - (2020), 138, Seite 21-48
1. Verfasser:	Bernard, Olga (VerfasserIn)
Format:	Online-Aufsatz
Sprache:	English
Veröffentlicht:	2020
Zugriff auf das übergeordnete Werk:	Annals of Economics and Statistics
Schlagworte:	False Positives Refutation Experimentation Publication Quality Social sciences Philosophy Economics Behavioral sciences Arts


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520			\|a I examine how incentives for refutation affect publication quality. I build a sequential model of public experimentation with two scientists, a researcher and a refuter. The researcher chooses when to publish a result confirming a hypothesis, with a probability that the result has type I error. The publication quality corresponds to the probability that the hypothesis is valid, which is the complement of the probability of type I error. Once the result is published, the refuter starts experimenting but, unlike the researcher, he can choose between working on refutation or on an outside safe option at any time. When scientists are initially pessimistic about the hypothesis' confirmation and when refutation is costly for the researcher, the higher the refutation rewards, the lower the equilibrium publication quality in case the researcher is more efficient than the refuter. The opposite result holds when the refuter is more efficient. In an extension, when the researcher's experimentation is private, I prove that the publication quality is lower than in the public experimentation case, suggesting that transparency improves research quality. JEL Codes: C72, C91, O31.
540			\|a © ANNALS OF ECONOMICS AND STATISTICS
650		4	\|a False Positives
650		4	\|a Refutation
650		4	\|a Experimentation
650		4	\|a Publication Quality
650		4	\|a Social sciences \|x Communications \|x Rhetoric \|x Discourse \|x Argumentation \|x Refutation
650		4	\|a Philosophy \|x Applied philosophy \|x Philosophy of science \|x Scientific method \|x Experimentation
650		4	\|a Social sciences \|x Communications \|x Communications media \|x Print media
650		4	\|a Economics \|x Economic research
650		4	\|a Philosophy \|x Epistemology \|x Belief \|x Scientific belief
650		4	\|a Economics \|x Economic disciplines \|x Applied economics \|x Economic modeling \|x Economic models
650		4	\|a Behavioral sciences \|x Psychology \|x Personality psychology \|x Personality \|x Personality traits \|x Pessimism
650		4	\|a Philosophy \|x Applied philosophy \|x Philosophy of science \|x Scientific method \|x Research variables \|x Research biases
650		4	\|a Arts \|x Literature
650		4	\|a Arts \|x Literature \|x Literary genres \|x Nonfiction \|x Research papers
650		4	\|a Social sciences \|x Communications \|x Rhetoric \|x Discourse \|x Argumentation \|x Refutation
650		4	\|a Philosophy \|x Applied philosophy \|x Philosophy of science \|x Scientific method \|x Experimentation
650		4	\|a Social sciences \|x Communications \|x Communications media \|x Print media
650		4	\|a Economics \|x Economic research
650		4	\|a Philosophy \|x Epistemology \|x Belief \|x Scientific belief
650		4	\|a Economics \|x Economic disciplines \|x Applied economics \|x Economic modeling \|x Economic models
650		4	\|a Behavioral sciences \|x Psychology \|x Personality psychology \|x Personality \|x Personality traits \|x Pessimism
650		4	\|a Philosophy \|x Applied philosophy \|x Philosophy of science \|x Scientific method \|x Research variables \|x Research biases
650		4	\|a Arts \|x Literature
650		4	\|a Arts \|x Literature \|x Literary genres \|x Nonfiction \|x Research papers
655		4	\|a research-article
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773	1	8	\|g year:2020 \|g number:138 \|g pages:21-48
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