Will we see helping hands? Predicting civil war mediation and likely success

Will we see helping hands? Predicting civil war mediation and likely success

Abstract We examine whether features highlighted as important for mediation in existing research allow us to predict when we will see mediation and likely success out-of-sample. We assess to what extent information about the characteristics of the conflicting dyads and conflict history can be evalua...

Ausführliche Beschreibung

Bibliographische Detailangaben
Veröffentlicht in:Conflict Management and Peace Science. - Peace Science Society (International) at the Department of Political Science. - 31(2014), 3, Seite 265-284
1. Verfasser: Clayton, Govinda (VerfasserIn)
Weitere Verfasser: Gleditsch, Kristian Skrede
Format: Online-Aufsatz
Sprache:English
Veröffentlicht: 2014
Zugriff auf das übergeordnete Werk:Conflict Management and Peace Science
Schlagworte:Civil conflict conflict management forecasting mediation prediction Law Applied sciences Behavioral sciences Political science Mathematics
LEADER 01000caa a22002652 4500
001 JST119701197
003 DE-627
005 20240625042648.0
007 cr uuu---uuuuu
008 180618s2014 xx |||||o 00| ||eng c
035 |a (DE-627)JST119701197 
035 |a (JST)26271363 
040 |a DE-627  |b ger  |c DE-627  |e rakwb 
041 |a eng 
100 1 |a Clayton, Govinda  |e verfasserin  |4 aut 
245 1 0 |a Will we see helping hands? Predicting civil war mediation and likely success 
264 1 |c 2014 
336 |a Text  |b txt  |2 rdacontent 
337 |a Computermedien  |b c  |2 rdamedia 
338 |a Online-Ressource  |b cr  |2 rdacarrier 
520 |a Abstract We examine whether features highlighted as important for mediation in existing research allow us to predict when we will see mediation and likely success out-of-sample. We assess to what extent information about the characteristics of the conflicting dyads and conflict history can be evaluatedex anteand improve our ability to predict when conflicts will see mediation as well as when peaceful solutions are more likely to follow from mediation. We justify that the information used to generate predictions through the model can be assessedex ante, using the ongoing conflict in Syria as an example. Our results suggest that a two-stage model of mediation and success seems to do relatively well overall in predicting when mediation is likely to occur, but notably less well in predicting the outcome of mediation. This may reflect howex anteobservable structural characteristics are likely to influence willingness to mediate, while the outcome of mediation to a large extent will be influenced by unobservable characteristics or private information and how these are influenced by mediation. We discuss the usefulness of out-of-sample evaluation in studying conflict management and suggest future directions for improving our ability to forecast mediation. 
540 |a © The Author(s) 2013 
650 4 |a Civil conflict 
650 4 |a conflict management 
650 4 |a forecasting 
650 4 |a mediation 
650 4 |a prediction 
650 4 |a Law  |x Civil law  |x Civil remedies  |x Alternative dispute resolution  |x Mediation 
650 4 |a Applied sciences  |x Research methods  |x Modeling 
650 4 |a Behavioral sciences  |x Human behavior  |x Social behavior  |x Social interaction  |x Conflict  |x Conflict management 
650 4 |a Political science  |x Military science  |x Armed conflict  |x War  |x War theaters  |x Civil wars 
650 4 |a Behavioral sciences  |x Human behavior  |x Social behavior  |x Social interaction  |x Conflict  |x War conflict 
650 4 |a Mathematics  |x Applied mathematics  |x Analytics  |x Predictive analytics  |x Analytical forecasting  |x Forecasting models 
650 4 |a Applied sciences  |x Research methods  |x Observational research 
650 4 |a Behavioral sciences  |x Human behavior  |x Violence 
650 4 |a Political science  |x Politics  |x International politics  |x International relations  |x Peacetime 
650 4 |a Behavioral sciences  |x Human behavior  |x Social behavior  |x Social interaction  |x Conflict  |x Conflict resolution  |x Article 
655 4 |a research-article 
700 1 |a Gleditsch, Kristian Skrede  |e verfasserin  |4 aut 
773 0 8 |i Enthalten in  |t Conflict Management and Peace Science  |d Peace Science Society (International) at the Department of Political Science  |g 31(2014), 3, Seite 265-284  |w (DE-627)387481516  |w (DE-600)2145757-8  |x 15499219  |7 nnns 
773 1 8 |g volume:31  |g year:2014  |g number:3  |g pages:265-284 
856 4 0 |u https://www.jstor.org/stable/26271363  |3 Volltext 
912 |a GBV_USEFLAG_A 
912 |a SYSFLAG_A 
912 |a GBV_JST 
912 |a GBV_ILN_11 
912 |a GBV_ILN_20 
912 |a GBV_ILN_22 
912 |a GBV_ILN_23 
912 |a GBV_ILN_24 
912 |a GBV_ILN_31 
912 |a GBV_ILN_32 
912 |a GBV_ILN_39 
912 |a GBV_ILN_40 
912 |a GBV_ILN_60 
912 |a GBV_ILN_62 
912 |a GBV_ILN_63 
912 |a GBV_ILN_65 
912 |a GBV_ILN_69 
912 |a GBV_ILN_70 
912 |a GBV_ILN_73 
912 |a GBV_ILN_74 
912 |a GBV_ILN_90 
912 |a GBV_ILN_95 
912 |a GBV_ILN_100 
912 |a GBV_ILN_105 
912 |a GBV_ILN_110 
912 |a GBV_ILN_120 
912 |a GBV_ILN_121 
912 |a GBV_ILN_138 
912 |a GBV_ILN_150 
912 |a GBV_ILN_151 
912 |a GBV_ILN_152 
912 |a GBV_ILN_161 
912 |a GBV_ILN_165 
912 |a GBV_ILN_171 
912 |a GBV_ILN_187 
912 |a GBV_ILN_206 
912 |a GBV_ILN_213 
912 |a GBV_ILN_224 
912 |a GBV_ILN_230 
912 |a GBV_ILN_250 
912 |a GBV_ILN_281 
912 |a GBV_ILN_285 
912 |a GBV_ILN_293 
912 |a GBV_ILN_370 
912 |a GBV_ILN_374 
912 |a GBV_ILN_602 
912 |a GBV_ILN_636 
912 |a GBV_ILN_647 
912 |a GBV_ILN_702 
912 |a GBV_ILN_2001 
912 |a GBV_ILN_2003 
912 |a GBV_ILN_2005 
912 |a GBV_ILN_2006 
912 |a GBV_ILN_2007 
912 |a GBV_ILN_2008 
912 |a GBV_ILN_2009 
912 |a GBV_ILN_2010 
912 |a GBV_ILN_2011 
912 |a GBV_ILN_2014 
912 |a GBV_ILN_2015 
912 |a GBV_ILN_2018 
912 |a GBV_ILN_2020 
912 |a GBV_ILN_2021 
912 |a GBV_ILN_2025 
912 |a GBV_ILN_2026 
912 |a GBV_ILN_2027 
912 |a GBV_ILN_2031 
912 |a GBV_ILN_2034 
912 |a GBV_ILN_2036 
912 |a GBV_ILN_2037 
912 |a GBV_ILN_2038 
912 |a GBV_ILN_2039 
912 |a GBV_ILN_2043 
912 |a GBV_ILN_2044 
912 |a GBV_ILN_2048 
912 |a GBV_ILN_2049 
912 |a GBV_ILN_2050 
912 |a GBV_ILN_2055 
912 |a GBV_ILN_2056 
912 |a GBV_ILN_2057 
912 |a GBV_ILN_2059 
912 |a GBV_ILN_2061 
912 |a GBV_ILN_2064 
912 |a GBV_ILN_2065 
912 |a GBV_ILN_2068 
912 |a GBV_ILN_2070 
912 |a GBV_ILN_2086 
912 |a GBV_ILN_2093 
912 |a GBV_ILN_2098 
912 |a GBV_ILN_2106 
912 |a GBV_ILN_2107 
912 |a GBV_ILN_2108 
912 |a GBV_ILN_2110 
912 |a GBV_ILN_2111 
912 |a GBV_ILN_2112 
912 |a GBV_ILN_2113 
912 |a GBV_ILN_2116 
912 |a GBV_ILN_2118 
912 |a GBV_ILN_2119 
912 |a GBV_ILN_2122 
912 |a GBV_ILN_2125 
912 |a GBV_ILN_2129 
912 |a GBV_ILN_2143 
912 |a GBV_ILN_2144 
912 |a GBV_ILN_2145 
912 |a GBV_ILN_2147 
912 |a GBV_ILN_2148 
912 |a GBV_ILN_2152 
912 |a GBV_ILN_2153 
912 |a GBV_ILN_2158 
912 |a GBV_ILN_2190 
912 |a GBV_ILN_2193 
912 |a GBV_ILN_2232 
912 |a GBV_ILN_2336 
912 |a GBV_ILN_2446 
912 |a GBV_ILN_2470 
912 |a GBV_ILN_2507 
912 |a GBV_ILN_2522 
912 |a GBV_ILN_2548 
912 |a GBV_ILN_2705 
912 |a GBV_ILN_2889 
912 |a GBV_ILN_2890 
912 |a GBV_ILN_2949 
912 |a GBV_ILN_2950 
912 |a GBV_ILN_4012 
912 |a GBV_ILN_4035 
912 |a GBV_ILN_4037 
912 |a GBV_ILN_4046 
912 |a GBV_ILN_4112 
912 |a GBV_ILN_4125 
912 |a GBV_ILN_4126 
912 |a GBV_ILN_4238 
912 |a GBV_ILN_4242 
912 |a GBV_ILN_4246 
912 |a GBV_ILN_4249 
912 |a GBV_ILN_4251 
912 |a GBV_ILN_4277 
912 |a GBV_ILN_4305 
912 |a GBV_ILN_4306 
912 |a GBV_ILN_4307 
912 |a GBV_ILN_4313 
912 |a GBV_ILN_4322 
912 |a GBV_ILN_4323 
912 |a GBV_ILN_4324 
912 |a GBV_ILN_4325 
912 |a GBV_ILN_4326 
912 |a GBV_ILN_4328 
912 |a GBV_ILN_4333 
912 |a GBV_ILN_4335 
912 |a GBV_ILN_4338 
912 |a GBV_ILN_4346 
912 |a GBV_ILN_4367 
912 |a GBV_ILN_4393 
912 |a GBV_ILN_4700 
912 |a GBV_ILN_4753 
951 |a AR 
952 |d 31  |j 2014  |e 3  |h 265-284