| Zusammenfassung: | The new stage of the Cuban Revolution that began with the presidency of Raúl Castro has seen consultation with the masses about what kind of socialism they want to build, a return to some aspects of the economic reform abandoned in 2000, a key role in the economy for the armed forces, the dismantling of certain programs of the Battle of Ideas that have proved economically unsound, the elimination of certain subsidies and free food for workers, and the reduction of the state through the fusion of ministries and the reduction of the labor force. The success of these policies will condition what scenarios will prevail in Cuba in the future. Possible scenarios include (1) transformation toward a twenty-first-century socialism consistent with the historical roots of the Cuban Revolution, (2) immobility, (3) a socialist market economy such as those of China and Vietnam, (4) collapse and implosion in the style of the Soviet Union and the countries of the Eastern Bloc and/or internal revolt, and (5) overthrow of the government because of a military invasion by the United States. Scenarios 1, 2, and 3 are most probable, but 5 cannot be ruled out. A series of policy alternatives is suggested here that might make the first scenario possible.
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