Where Do Bayesian Priors Come From?

Where Do Bayesian Priors Come From?

Bayesian prior probabilities have an important place in probabilistic and statistical methods. In spite of this fact, the analysis of where these priors come from and how they are formed has received little attention. It is reasonable to excuse the lack, in the foundational literature, of detailed p...

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Veröffentlicht in:Synthese. - Springer Science + Business Media. - 156(2007), 3, Seite 441-471
1. Verfasser: Suppes, Patrick (VerfasserIn)
Format: Online-Aufsatz
Sprache:English
Veröffentlicht: 2007
Zugriff auf das übergeordnete Werk:Synthese
Schlagworte:Bayesian priors Learning mechanisms Learning theory Ramsey de Finetti Savage Norms Policy decisions Behavioral sciences Mathematics mehr... Physical sciences Philosophy
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520 |a Bayesian prior probabilities have an important place in probabilistic and statistical methods. In spite of this fact, the analysis of where these priors come from and how they are formed has received little attention. It is reasonable to excuse the lack, in the foundational literature, of detailed psychological theory of what are the mechanisms by which prior probabilities are formed. But it is less excusable that there is an almost total absence of a detailed discussion of the highly differentiating nature of past experience in forming a prior. The focus here is on what kind of account, even if necessarily schematic, can be given about the psychological mechanisms back of the formation of Bayesian priors. The last section examines a detailed experiment relevant to how priors are learned. 
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