|
|
|
|
LEADER |
01000caa a22002652 4500 |
001 |
JST063701286 |
003 |
DE-627 |
005 |
20240622102630.0 |
007 |
cr uuu---uuuuu |
008 |
150325s1991 xx |||||o 00| ||eng c |
035 |
|
|
|a (DE-627)JST063701286
|
035 |
|
|
|a (JST)171405
|
040 |
|
|
|a DE-627
|b ger
|c DE-627
|e rakwb
|
041 |
|
|
|a eng
|
100 |
1 |
|
|a Morrison, Donald G.
|e verfasserin
|4 aut
|
245 |
1 |
0 |
|a How Many Forecasters Do You Really Have? Mahalanobis Provides the Intuition for the Surprising Clemen and Winkler Result
|
264 |
|
1 |
|c 1991
|
336 |
|
|
|a Text
|b txt
|2 rdacontent
|
337 |
|
|
|a Computermedien
|b c
|2 rdamedia
|
338 |
|
|
|a Online-Ressource
|b cr
|2 rdacarrier
|
520 |
|
|
|a How to combine expert opinions is an issue that has many aspects and even more "answers." The problem addressed here is the incremental information an additional expert brings when he or she is correlated with the existing experts. R. T. Clemen and R. L. Winkler derive an algebraic formula that gives the surprising answer-usually very little. In this paper, we provide the geometrical intuition behind the Clemen and Winkler result. We also show how the Clemen and Winkler formula breaks down (i.e., gives bizarre results) as the error covariance structure approaches singularity.
|
540 |
|
|
|a Copyright 1991 The Operations Research Society of America
|
650 |
|
4 |
|a Decision analysis: theory
|
650 |
|
4 |
|a Forecasting: applications
|
650 |
|
4 |
|a Mathematics
|x Applied mathematics
|x Statistics
|x Applied statistics
|x Statistical results
|x Statistical forecasts
|
650 |
|
4 |
|a Mathematics
|x Applied mathematics
|x Analytics
|x Predictive analytics
|x Analytical forecasting
|
650 |
|
4 |
|a Mathematics
|x Pure mathematics
|x Linear algebra
|x Matrix theory
|x Matrices
|x Covariance matrices
|
650 |
|
4 |
|a Business
|x Business information
|x Business forecasting
|x Sales forecasting
|
650 |
|
4 |
|a Information science
|x Information analysis
|x Data analysis
|x Time series analysis
|x Time series forecasting
|
650 |
|
4 |
|a Behavioral sciences
|x Psychology
|x Cognitive psychology
|x Intuition
|
650 |
|
4 |
|a Mathematics
|x Applied mathematics
|x Statistics
|x Error rates
|
650 |
|
4 |
|a Mathematics
|x Mathematical expressions
|x Mathematical functions
|x Transcendental functions
|x Trigonometric functions
|x Cosine function
|
650 |
|
4 |
|a Mathematics
|x Applied mathematics
|x Statistics
|x Applied statistics
|x Descriptive statistics
|x Measures of variability
|x Statistical variance
|
650 |
|
4 |
|a Mathematics
|x Pure mathematics
|x Algebra
|x Technical Notes
|
655 |
|
4 |
|a research-article
|
700 |
1 |
|
|a Schmittlein, David C.
|e verfasserin
|4 aut
|
773 |
0 |
8 |
|i Enthalten in
|t Operations Research
|d Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences, 1956
|g 39(1991), 3, Seite 519-523
|w (DE-627)320595005
|w (DE-600)2019440-7
|x 15265463
|7 nnns
|
773 |
1 |
8 |
|g volume:39
|g year:1991
|g number:3
|g pages:519-523
|
856 |
4 |
0 |
|u https://www.jstor.org/stable/171405
|3 Volltext
|
912 |
|
|
|a GBV_USEFLAG_A
|
912 |
|
|
|a SYSFLAG_A
|
912 |
|
|
|a GBV_JST
|
912 |
|
|
|a GBV_ILN_11
|
912 |
|
|
|a GBV_ILN_20
|
912 |
|
|
|a GBV_ILN_22
|
912 |
|
|
|a GBV_ILN_23
|
912 |
|
|
|a GBV_ILN_24
|
912 |
|
|
|a GBV_ILN_31
|
912 |
|
|
|a GBV_ILN_32
|
912 |
|
|
|a GBV_ILN_39
|
912 |
|
|
|a GBV_ILN_40
|
912 |
|
|
|a GBV_ILN_60
|
912 |
|
|
|a GBV_ILN_62
|
912 |
|
|
|a GBV_ILN_63
|
912 |
|
|
|a GBV_ILN_65
|
912 |
|
|
|a GBV_ILN_69
|
912 |
|
|
|a GBV_ILN_70
|
912 |
|
|
|a GBV_ILN_90
|
912 |
|
|
|a GBV_ILN_95
|
912 |
|
|
|a GBV_ILN_100
|
912 |
|
|
|a GBV_ILN_101
|
912 |
|
|
|a GBV_ILN_110
|
912 |
|
|
|a GBV_ILN_120
|
912 |
|
|
|a GBV_ILN_152
|
912 |
|
|
|a GBV_ILN_187
|
912 |
|
|
|a GBV_ILN_224
|
912 |
|
|
|a GBV_ILN_285
|
912 |
|
|
|a GBV_ILN_374
|
912 |
|
|
|a GBV_ILN_702
|
912 |
|
|
|a GBV_ILN_2001
|
912 |
|
|
|a GBV_ILN_2003
|
912 |
|
|
|a GBV_ILN_2005
|
912 |
|
|
|a GBV_ILN_2006
|
912 |
|
|
|a GBV_ILN_2007
|
912 |
|
|
|a GBV_ILN_2008
|
912 |
|
|
|a GBV_ILN_2009
|
912 |
|
|
|a GBV_ILN_2010
|
912 |
|
|
|a GBV_ILN_2011
|
912 |
|
|
|a GBV_ILN_2014
|
912 |
|
|
|a GBV_ILN_2015
|
912 |
|
|
|a GBV_ILN_2018
|
912 |
|
|
|a GBV_ILN_2020
|
912 |
|
|
|a GBV_ILN_2021
|
912 |
|
|
|a GBV_ILN_2026
|
912 |
|
|
|a GBV_ILN_2027
|
912 |
|
|
|a GBV_ILN_2034
|
912 |
|
|
|a GBV_ILN_2044
|
912 |
|
|
|a GBV_ILN_2048
|
912 |
|
|
|a GBV_ILN_2050
|
912 |
|
|
|a GBV_ILN_2055
|
912 |
|
|
|a GBV_ILN_2056
|
912 |
|
|
|a GBV_ILN_2057
|
912 |
|
|
|a GBV_ILN_2059
|
912 |
|
|
|a GBV_ILN_2061
|
912 |
|
|
|a GBV_ILN_2065
|
912 |
|
|
|a GBV_ILN_2068
|
912 |
|
|
|a GBV_ILN_2106
|
912 |
|
|
|a GBV_ILN_2107
|
912 |
|
|
|a GBV_ILN_2108
|
912 |
|
|
|a GBV_ILN_2111
|
912 |
|
|
|a GBV_ILN_2112
|
912 |
|
|
|a GBV_ILN_2113
|
912 |
|
|
|a GBV_ILN_2118
|
912 |
|
|
|a GBV_ILN_2122
|
912 |
|
|
|a GBV_ILN_2129
|
912 |
|
|
|a GBV_ILN_2143
|
912 |
|
|
|a GBV_ILN_2147
|
912 |
|
|
|a GBV_ILN_2148
|
912 |
|
|
|a GBV_ILN_2152
|
912 |
|
|
|a GBV_ILN_2153
|
912 |
|
|
|a GBV_ILN_2190
|
912 |
|
|
|a GBV_ILN_2232
|
912 |
|
|
|a GBV_ILN_2472
|
912 |
|
|
|a GBV_ILN_2935
|
912 |
|
|
|a GBV_ILN_2940
|
912 |
|
|
|a GBV_ILN_2949
|
912 |
|
|
|a GBV_ILN_2950
|
912 |
|
|
|a GBV_ILN_4012
|
912 |
|
|
|a GBV_ILN_4035
|
912 |
|
|
|a GBV_ILN_4037
|
912 |
|
|
|a GBV_ILN_4046
|
912 |
|
|
|a GBV_ILN_4112
|
912 |
|
|
|a GBV_ILN_4125
|
912 |
|
|
|a GBV_ILN_4126
|
912 |
|
|
|a GBV_ILN_4242
|
912 |
|
|
|a GBV_ILN_4246
|
912 |
|
|
|a GBV_ILN_4249
|
912 |
|
|
|a GBV_ILN_4251
|
912 |
|
|
|a GBV_ILN_4305
|
912 |
|
|
|a GBV_ILN_4306
|
912 |
|
|
|a GBV_ILN_4307
|
912 |
|
|
|a GBV_ILN_4313
|
912 |
|
|
|a GBV_ILN_4322
|
912 |
|
|
|a GBV_ILN_4323
|
912 |
|
|
|a GBV_ILN_4324
|
912 |
|
|
|a GBV_ILN_4325
|
912 |
|
|
|a GBV_ILN_4326
|
912 |
|
|
|a GBV_ILN_4335
|
912 |
|
|
|a GBV_ILN_4338
|
912 |
|
|
|a GBV_ILN_4346
|
912 |
|
|
|a GBV_ILN_4393
|
912 |
|
|
|a GBV_ILN_4700
|
951 |
|
|
|a AR
|
952 |
|
|
|d 39
|j 1991
|e 3
|h 519-523
|