Do Juries Meet Our Expectations?

Do Juries Meet Our Expectations?

Surveys of public opinion indicate that people have high expectations for juries. When it comes to serious crimes, most people want errors of convicting the innocent (false positives) or acquitting the guilty (false negatives) to fall well below 10%. Using expected utility theory, Bayes' Theore...

Ausführliche Beschreibung

Bibliographische Detailangaben
Veröffentlicht in:Law and Human Behavior. - Kluwer Academic/Plenum Publishers, 1977. - 26(2002), 6, Seite 625-639
1. Verfasser: Arkes, Hal R. (VerfasserIn)
Weitere Verfasser: Mellers, Barbara A.
Format: Online-Aufsatz
Sprache:English
Veröffentlicht: 2002
Zugriff auf das übergeordnete Werk:Law and Human Behavior
Schlagworte:Jury decision making Bayes' Theorem Signal detection theory Expected utility theory Law Mathematics Behavioral sciences Economics
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520 |a Surveys of public opinion indicate that people have high expectations for juries. When it comes to serious crimes, most people want errors of convicting the innocent (false positives) or acquitting the guilty (false negatives) to fall well below 10%. Using expected utility theory, Bayes' Theorem, signal detection theory, and empirical evidence from detection studies of medical decision making, eyewitness testimony, and weather forecasting, we argue that the frequency of mistakes probably far exceeds these "tolerable" levels. We are not arguing against the use of juries. Rather, we point out that a closer look at jury decisions reveals a serious gap between what we expect from juries and what probably occurs. When deciding issues of guilt and/or punishing convicted criminals, we as a society should recognize and acknowledge the abundance of error. 
540 |a Copyright 2002 American Psychology-Law Society/Division 41 of the American Psychological Association 
650 4 |a Jury decision making 
650 4 |a Bayes' Theorem 
650 4 |a Signal detection theory 
650 4 |a Expected utility theory 
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650 4 |a Law  |x Judicial system  |x Legal proceedings  |x Litigation  |x Litigation parties  |x Litigants  |x Defendants 
650 4 |a Mathematics  |x Applied mathematics  |x Statistics  |x Error rates 
650 4 |a Behavioral sciences  |x Psychology  |x Cognitive psychology  |x Emotion  |x Emotional states  |x Guilt 
650 4 |a Economics  |x Microeconomics  |x Economic utility  |x Expected utility 
650 4 |a Law  |x Judicial system  |x Legal proceedings  |x Trial court proceedings  |x Trials 
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700 1 |a Mellers, Barbara A.  |e verfasserin  |4 aut 
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