Uncertainty and the Management of Mallard Harvests

Uncertainty and the Management of Mallard Harvests

Those charged with regulating waterfowl harvests must cope with random environmental variations, incomplete control over harvest rates, and uncertainty about biological mechanisms operative in the population. Stochastic dynamic programming can be used effectively to account for these uncertainties i...

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Bibliographische Detailangaben
Veröffentlicht in:The Journal of Wildlife Management. - The Wildlife Society. - 61(1997), 1, Seite 202-216
1. Verfasser: Johnson, Fred A. (VerfasserIn)
Weitere Verfasser: Moore, Clinton T., Kendall, William L., Dubovsky, James A., Caithamer, David F., Kelley,, James R., Williams, Byron K.
Format: Online-Aufsatz
Sprache:English
Veröffentlicht: 1997
Zugriff auf das übergeordnete Werk:The Journal of Wildlife Management
Schlagworte:Adaptive management Anas platyrhynchos Decisions Harvest Hunting Objectives Optimization Population dynamics Recruitment Regulations mehr... Stochastic control Survival Uncertainty Social sciences Biological sciences Physical sciences Applied sciences Business
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520 |a Those charged with regulating waterfowl harvests must cope with random environmental variations, incomplete control over harvest rates, and uncertainty about biological mechanisms operative in the population. Stochastic dynamic programming can be used effectively to account for these uncertainties if the probabilities associated with uncertain outcomes can be estimated. To use this approach managers must have clearly-stated objectives, a set of regulatory options, and a mathematical description of the managed system. We used dynamic programming to derive optimal harvest strategies for mallards (Anas platyrhynchos) in which we balanced the competing objectives of maximizing long-term cumulative harvest and achieving a specified population goal. Model-specific harvest strategies, which account for random variation in wetland conditions on the breeding grounds and for uncertainty about the relation between hunting regulations and harvest rates, are provided and compared. We also account for uncertainty in population dynamics with model probabilities, which express the relative confidence that alternative models adequately describe population responses to harvest and environmental conditions. Finally, we demonstrate how the harvest strategy thus derived can "evolve" as model probabilities are updated periodically using comparisons of model predictions and estimates of population size. 
540 |a Copyright 1997 The Wildlife Society 
650 4 |a Adaptive management 
650 4 |a Anas platyrhynchos 
650 4 |a Decisions 
650 4 |a Harvest 
650 4 |a Hunting 
650 4 |a Objectives 
650 4 |a Optimization 
650 4 |a Population dynamics 
650 4 |a Recruitment 
650 4 |a Regulations 
650 4 |a Stochastic control 
650 4 |a Survival 
650 4 |a Uncertainty 
650 4 |a Social sciences  |x Population studies  |x Population characteristics  |x Population size 
650 4 |a Biological sciences  |x Wildlife studies  |x Wildlife management 
650 4 |a Physical sciences  |x Earth sciences  |x Geography  |x Geomorphology  |x Bodies of water  |x Ponds 
650 4 |a Biological sciences  |x Ecology  |x Applied ecology  |x Environmental management 
650 4 |a Biological sciences  |x Ecology  |x Applied ecology  |x Environmental management  |x Natural resource management  |x Water management 
650 4 |a Social sciences  |x Population studies  |x Mortality 
650 4 |a Biological sciences  |x Biology  |x Zoology  |x Animals  |x Birds  |x Waterfowl 
650 4 |a Applied sciences  |x Research methods  |x Modeling 
650 4 |a Business  |x Industry  |x Industrial sectors  |x Manufacturing industries  |x Consumer goods industries  |x Clothing industry  |x Clothing  |x Vests 
650 4 |a Biological sciences  |x Ecology  |x Ecosystems  |x Biomes  |x Grasslands  |x Prairies 
655 4 |a research-article 
700 1 |a Moore, Clinton T.  |e verfasserin  |4 aut 
700 1 |a Kendall, William L.  |e verfasserin  |4 aut 
700 1 |a Dubovsky, James A.  |e verfasserin  |4 aut 
700 1 |a Caithamer, David F.  |e verfasserin  |4 aut 
700 1 |a Kelley,, James R.  |e verfasserin  |4 aut 
700 1 |a Williams, Byron K.  |e verfasserin  |4 aut 
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773 1 8 |g volume:61  |g year:1997  |g number:1  |g pages:202-216 
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