Stable Factors in Security Returns: Identification Using Cross-Validation

Recent papers in financial research focus on identifying a stable factor structure for security returns. The likelihood ratio test typically is used to determine the number of factors from exploratory factor analysis models. In this article, we consider the use of cross-validation to identify a stab...

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Veröffentlicht in:Journal of Business & Economic Statistics. - American Statistical Association, 1983. - 6(1988), 1, Seite 1-15
1. Verfasser: Conway, Delores A. (VerfasserIn)
Weitere Verfasser: Reinganum, Marc R.
Format: Online-Aufsatz
Sprache:English
Veröffentlicht: 1988
Zugriff auf das übergeordnete Werk:Journal of Business & Economic Statistics
Schlagworte:Arbitrage pricing theory Factor analysis Statistical methods in finance Likelihood ratio test Covariance structures Mathematics Applied sciences Economics
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520 |a Recent papers in financial research focus on identifying a stable factor structure for security returns. The likelihood ratio test typically is used to determine the number of factors from exploratory factor analysis models. In this article, we consider the use of cross-validation to identify a stable factor structure in security returns. When applied to actual stock-return data, cross-validation identifies a smaller number of stable factors than the likelihood ratio test. In groups of 30-60 randomly selected securities, cross-validation suggests one dominant factor, whereas the likelihood ratio test identifies from four to six factors. Furthermore, when groups are designed to highlight industry or size effects, the discovery of more than one dominant factor is problematic. Even if there are multiple economic factors generating stock returns, they may be difficult to disentangle if the underlying factors tend to be correlated. 
540 |a Copyright 1988 American Statistical Association 
650 4 |a Arbitrage pricing theory 
650 4 |a Factor analysis 
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650 4 |a Likelihood ratio test 
650 4 |a Covariance structures 
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650 4 |a Economics  |x Economic disciplines  |x Financial economics  |x Finance  |x Financial instruments  |x Financial securities  |x Securities management  |x Securities returns 
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700 1 |a Reinganum, Marc R.  |e verfasserin  |4 aut 
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